Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Third Dekad (21st - 31st) of January, 2020
ISSUED AT: 04:08 PM
Date: Thursday 23rd of January 2020
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Summary:
During the third dekad of January, relative wet days are expected on the 21st, 24th, 25th, 30th, and 31st , whereas relatively dry days on the 22nd, 23rd, 26th, 27th, 28th and 29th. On relatively wet days, expect partly cloudy skies with a moderate probability (60%) of few brisk showers. While during relative dry days expect few cloudy patches with a low probability (20%) of a brief shower or two.
Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Third Dekad (21st - 31st) of January, 2020
ISSUED AT: 04:08 PM
Date: Thursday 23rd of January 2020
Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:
| Term | Meaning | |
|---|---|---|
| Dekad | 10 day rainfall measuring period | |
| Rain Day | A day with 1.0 mm or more of rainfall amount | |
| Wet Day | A day with 10.0 mm or more rainfall amount | |
| Extremely Wet Day | A day with 25.0 mm or more of rainfall amount | |
| Normal Rainfall | Between 75% and 125% of the average | |
| Below Normal Rainfall | Rainfall below 75% of the average | |
| Above Normal Rainfall | Rainfall in excess of 125% of the average | |
| Much Below Normal Rainfall | Rainfall below 50% of the average | |
| Much Above Normal Rainfall | Rainfall above 150% of the average | |
| Scanty Rainfall | Less than 1 mm | |
| Moderate Rainfall | 1-10 mm | |
| Heavy Rainfall | 10-50 mm | |
| Very Heavy Rainfall | Greater than 50 mm | |
| Probability of 1-30 % | Low Chance | |
| Probability of 30-70 % | Moderate Chance | |
| Probability greater than 70 % | High Chance | |
| Term | Amount of Rain | Type of day |
| Scanty Rainfall | Less than 1 mm | Relatively dry day |
| Moderate Rainfall | 1-10 mm | Relatively wet day |
| Heavy Rainfall | 10-50 mm | Wet day |
| Very Heavy Rainfall | Greater than 50 mm | Excessively wet day |
Weather Assessment for the Second Dekad (11th – 20th) of January 2020.
More relatively wet days occurred during the second dekad of January in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall total maps for the period 11th to 20th of January are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.
Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 11th to 20th of January 2020.
Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 11th to 20th of January 2020.
The observed Temperatures (maximum/minimum), Average Relative humidity (maximum/minimum) and Long term 10 days (10dys) averages for locations: Piarco International airport and ANR Robinson International airport.
|
Location |
Maximum Temperature 0C/ Long term 10 dys average 0C |
Minimum Temperature 0C /Long term 10 dys average 0C |
Average maximum Relative humidity (%)/ Long term 10 dys average (%) |
Average minimum Relative humidity (%)/Long term 10 dys average (%) |
|
Trinidad (Piarco International airport) |
31.8/30.9 (1981-2010) |
21.8/21.4 (1981-2010) |
90/96 (1990-2010) |
75/56 (1990-2010)
|
|
Tobago (ANR Robinson International airport) |
31.1/29.9 (1981-2010) |
22.4/22.7 (1981-2000) |
82/87 (1990-2010) |
70/62 (1990-2010) |
The Expected Weather conditions during the Third Dekad (21st – 31st) of January 2020, for Trinidad and Tobago, as seen in table 1.
Table 1.
|
Days: |
Expected weather: |
|
21st |
Partly cloudy with a moderate probability (60%) of few brisk showers. |
|
22nd |
Few cloudy patches with a low probability (20%) of a brief shower or two. |
|
23rd |
Few cloudy patches with a low probability (20%) of a brief shower or two. |
|
24th |
Partly cloudy with a moderate probability (60%) of few brisk showers |
|
25th |
Partly cloudy with a moderate probability (60%) of few brisk showers |
|
26th |
Few cloudy patches with a low probability (20%) of a brief shower or two. |
|
27th |
Few cloudy patches with a low probability (20%) of a brief shower or two. |
|
28th |
Few cloudy patches with a low probability (20%) of a brief shower or two. |
|
29th |
Few cloudy patches with a low probability (20%) of a brief shower or two. |
|
30th |
Partly cloudy with a moderate probability (60%) of few brisk showers |
|
31st |
Partly cloudy with a moderate probability (60%) of few brisk showers |
The expected Temperatures, Humidity and Dust haze days during the Third dekad of January for Piarco, Trinidad as seen in table 2.
Table 2.
|
Day |
Maximum Temperature 0C |
Minimum Temperature 0C |
Average Relative humidity (%) |
Dust Haze Yes/No |
|
21st |
31.2 |
21.8 |
84 |
Yes |
|
22nd |
31.8 |
21.8 |
80 |
Yes |
|
23rd |
31.8 |
21.8 |
80 |
Yes |
|
24th |
31.2 |
22.2 |
83 |
No |
|
25th |
31.2 |
22.2 |
83 |
No |
|
26th |
31.6 |
22.2 |
82 |
Yes |
|
27th |
31.8 |
21.8 |
79 |
Yes |
|
28th |
31.8 |
21.8 |
77 |
Yes |
|
29th |
31.8 |
21.8 |
77 |
Yes |
|
30th |
31.2 |
22.0 |
84 |
No |
|
31st |
31.3 |
22.2 |
85 |
No |
The expected Temperatures, Humidity and Dust haze days during the Third dekad of January for ANR Robinson, Tobago as seen in table 3.
Table 3
|
Day |
Maximum Temperature 0C |
Minimum Temperature 0C |
Average Relative humidity (%) |
Dust Haze Yes/No |
|
21st |
31.1 |
22.4 |
77 |
Yes |
|
22nd |
31.4 |
22.4 |
76 |
Yes |
|
23rd |
31.4 |
23.3 |
76 |
Yes |
|
24th |
31.0 |
23.3 |
78 |
No |
|
25th |
31.0 |
23.0 |
79 |
No |
|
26th |
31.2 |
22.4 |
76 |
Yes |
|
27th |
31.4 |
22.4 |
76 |
Yes |
|
28th |
31.4 |
22.4 |
76 |
Yes |
|
29th |
31.4 |
22.4 |
76 |
Yes |
|
30th |
31.0 |
22.4 |
79 |
No |
|
31st |
31.0 |
22.4 |
79 |
No |
Tobago’s Mean Daily Rainfall Forecast for the Third Dekad of January (21st–31st) 2020.
Northern & Northwestern areas:
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.3 mm.
North-Eastern and Eastern areas:
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.6 mm.
Central, West-Central and inland areas:
Moderate chance (60%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.0 mm.
South-Eastern areas:
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.0 mm.
Southern areas:
Moderate chance (64%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.1 mm.
South-Western areas:
Moderate chance (60%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.0 mm.
Figure 3. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing possible rainfall totals for varying districts during Third dekad of January 2020 and percentage probability of occurrence.
Tobago’s Mean Daily Rainfall Forecast for the Third Dekad of January (21st–31st) 2020.
Northeastern areas:
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.0 mm.
South-Western areas:
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.0 mm.
Figure 4. Rainfall map of Tobago showing possible rainfall totals for varying districts during Third dekad of January 2020 and percentage probability of occurrence.
Impacts on Agriculture:
During the third dekad of January 2020, relative wet days are expected on the 21st, 24th, 25th, 30th, and 31st , whereas relatively dry days on the 22nd, 23rd, 26th, 27th, 28th and 29th. The transitioning process from the rainy season to the dry season is continuing at a slow pace, soil moisture will continue to remain steady with mix conditions across Trinidad and Tobago, resulting in steady vegetative growth. Rivers will replenish their waters from mostly ground water flow and surface runoff, while shrubs and grass growth will continue at a reduced but steady pace. Additionally, with the mean temperatures and relative humidity being lowest, as expected at this time of the year, there is a low (20%) probability of some agricultural insects, pests, fungi and diseases get a foot in and possibly develop.
Sun and Moon positions in the sky:
The sun is presently at latitude of approximately 19.75 degrees south latitude, and with this position, the day length for this dekad will be 11.5 hours. A low probability (20%) of intense solar radiation occurring during the third dekad of January, 2020 when the sky is generally cloud free. There is low probability (10%) of heat stress on variety plant seedlings and young/sick/elderly animals from direct exposure to direct solar radiation and warm temperatures. Additionally, the moon’s new moon phase will be on the 24th of January as a result, there will be medium to low moon illumination over crop fields and livestock at night during the dekad.