Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Second Dekad (11th - 20th) of April, 2021



ISSUED AT: 10:01 AM

Date: Saturday 10th of April 2021

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Summary:

Ample Rainfall amounts are expected on four of the ten days. Rainfall amounts ranging between 1.0 mm to 7.0 mm, are expected on the 11th and 12th, with higher amounts on days 19th and 20th, particularly in eastern parts of Trinidad and along the coast. A drying trend is expected to develop, persist and strengthen over the period 14th through the 17th, where both islands will experience hot, dry weather with long sunny spells, followed by more favorable weather for agriculture on the 18th, 19th and 20th . Farmers are encourage to harvest water when feasible to mitigate against the harsh dry days. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain warm (29.5oC) to very warm (31.8oC) throughout most of the period, but are likely to become hot (32.0oC to 32.6oC) on the 14th and 17th. However, temperatures are expected to have a real-feel or feels-like between 33.0oC to 40.0oC on most days, even with moderate winds. Low rainfall totals, high temperatures, high feels-like values, low daytime humidity values, and mostly moderate winds will increase evapo-transpiration rates in crops and increase drying and heat stress. This will increase the need to irrigate crops and provide fresh water to livestock. Trinidad: Partly cloudy spells on the 11th, 12th, 19th and 20th will likely bring light to occasionally moderate rainfall across farmlands in the southeast, eastern and northeast areas of Trinidad. Where rainfall totals are forecasted to be between 1.0 mm and 7.0 mm across different farmlands. The heaviest and most persistent rains are expected over farmland in the northeast near Sangre Grande, Biche, Fishing pond, Plum Mitan and Vega De Oropouche, and near Mora Valley and Moruga in southeast. Otherwise, mostly hot and sunny, at times partly cloudy but generally fine and dry with plenty of warm sunshine will dominate the other days. Ten days rainfall totals are expected to range between 35.0 mm and 75.0 mm. On the hand, from the 14th to 17th a drying trend will develop but will be interrupted now and then by cloudy patches at times. Tobago: Farmers should expect two days of light to moderate rainfall amounts on the 11th and 12th followed by largely dry conditions with mostly sunny spells, fine and warm weather in Tobago. Ten-day rainfall totals are expected to reach 35.0 mm in the island southwest and 25.0 mm in the northeast. Following the 12th, dryness will increase throughout the rest of the period, as a drying trend is set to take hold across the island during the rest of the 10 days. Temperatures & Winds: Daytime temperatures are expected to remain warm to very warm throughout the period, except on the 11th and 12th, when maximum temperatures are likely to dip to 30.0⁰C. Farmers should expect an increase in heat from the 13th as maximum temperatures are expected to climb close to 32.6 oC. The real-feel or feels-like temperatures are expected to range between 33.0oC and 37.0oC on most days, but with very good chances for the real-feel or feels-like temperatures between 38.0 oC to 40.0oC during 14th to 17th . Over the four days period (14th – 18th) moisture levels are expected to be low with average daytime relative humidity values in 40s to 50s, in terms of percentage. While during the 11th, 12th, 19th and 20th average daytime relative humidity values in the 60s to 80s, in terms of percentage Wind speeds are expected to be light to moderate with speeds between 10 km/h and 22 km/h and gusts up to 30 km/h at times.


Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Second Dekad (11th - 20th) of April, 2021



ISSUED AT: 10:01 AM

Date: Saturday 10th of April 2021


Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:

Term Meaning
Dekad 10 day rainfall measuring period
Rain Day A day with 1.0 mm or more of rainfall amount
Wet Day A day with 10.0 mm or more rainfall amount
Extremely Wet Day A day with 25.0 mm or more of rainfall amount
Normal Rainfall Between 75% and 125% of the average
Below Normal Rainfall Rainfall below 75% of the average
Above Normal Rainfall Rainfall in excess of 125% of the average
Much Below Normal Rainfall Rainfall below 50% of the average
Much Above Normal Rainfall Rainfall above 150% of the average
Scanty Rainfall Less than 1 mm
Moderate Rainfall 1-10 mm
Heavy Rainfall 10-50 mm
Very Heavy Rainfall Greater than 50 mm
Probability of 1-30 % Low Chance
Probability of 30-70 % Moderate Chance
Probability greater than 70 % High Chance
Term Amount of Rain Type of day
Scanty Rainfall Less than 1 mm Relatively dry day
Moderate Rainfall 1-10 mm Relatively wet day
Heavy Rainfall 10-50 mm Wet day
Very Heavy Rainfall Greater than 50 mm Excessively wet day

Weather Assessment for the period April (1st -9th) 2021.

During the first 9 days of April 2021, very little rain fell to support farming processes. In Trinidad day one (1st) and day seventh (7th) in Tobago, were the only days that had useful rainfall which assisted agriculture. Followed by 8 consecutive dry days in Trinidad. The rainfall totals for the period 1st to 9th April located below as figure 1.  While Tobago received, moderate rainfall amounts only on the seventh, continued drying trend occured. Tobago’s rainfall totals map for the period 1st to 9th of April located below as figure 2.

 

 

 

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 1st to 9th of April 2021.

 

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 1st to 9th of March 2021.

10-day Weather Forecast for Farming, April (11th – 20th) 2021

 

Weather

Temperature

Heat

Real

Feel

Day Moisture

(Relative) (Humidity)

Wind

11th  

 

65% chance of light to moderate showers

 

 

1.0 to 7.0 mm  rainfall possible

Partly cloudy with moderate showers

Warm        

 Max Temp 30.0oC

 

Feels like

33-35oC

 

 

65-80%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

14 km/h

12th  

65% chance of light to moderate showers

 

1.0 to 7.0 mm  rainfall possible

Partly cloudy with moderate showers

Warm          Max Temp 30.5oC

 

 

Feels like

34-35oC

 

 

67-76%

moderate easterly

20 km/h

Gust

28 km/h

13th  

60% chance isolated showers

 

0.0 to 5.0 mm  rainfall possible

Partly cloudy few showers

Warm

     Max Temp 31.8oC

 

 

Feels like

34-39oC

 

 

50-62%

moderate south-easterly

14 km/h

Gust

24 km/h

14th

Sunny

 

Few cloudy patches

Hot         Max Temp 32.4oC

 

 

Feels like

35-40oC

 

 

40-50%

Moderate  south-easterly

20 km/h

Gust

32 km/h

15th

Sunny

 

Few cloudy patches

Hot      

Max Temp 32.4oC

 

 

Feels like

35-40oC

 

 

 

40-50%

Moderate south-easterly

20 km/h

Gust

32 km/h

 

 

16th

Sunny

 

Few cloudy patches

Hot 

Max Temp 32.6oC

 

Feels like

35-40oC

 

 

40-55%

Moderate

south-easterly

20 km/h

Gust

 24 km/h

17th

Sunny

 

Few cloudy patches

Hot             

Max Temp 32.6oC

 

 

Feels like

38-42oC

 

 

 

40-48%

Moderate easterly

16 km/h

Gust

 26 km/h

18th

45% chance showers

 

 

Mainly sunny with occasional light showers

Very Warm           

Max Temp 31.8oC

 

 

Feels like

35-38oC

 

 

 

52-62%

Moderate easterly

at

20 km/h Gust

28 km/h

19th

65% chance moderate showers

 

0.0 to 7.0 mm  rainfall with higher amounts   in the east coast of Trinidad

Partly cloudy with moderate showers

Very Warm           

Max Temp 31.8oC

 

 

Feels like

 

35-38oC

 

 

 

   55-65%

Moderate easterly

at

20 km/h Gust

30 km/h

20th

65% chance moderate showers

 

 

0.0 to 7.0 mm  rainfall with higher amounts   in the east coast of Trinidad

Partly cloudy with moderate showers

Very Warm           

Max Temp 31.8oC

 

 

Feels like

 

35-38oC

 

 

50-60%

Moderate easterly

at

20 km/h Gust

28 km/h

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky April 11th to 20th 2021

The sun is presently at the latitude 7.8 degrees North latitude and with this position, the day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from April 11th to April 20th will be between 12hours 12 minutes and 12 hours 18 minutes. 

The new moon phase will be on the 11th, which is a poor planting or cultivating day, while days 12th to 14th are good planting days. On the other hand, 15th and 16th will be poor days for planting, however 17th to 19th  are good days for planting above ground crops.

 

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the Second 10 Days of April (11th– 20th) 2021

   

Figure 1.  Rainfall Map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the second ten (10) days of April 2021 and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern and North-Eastern areas 

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.6 mm.

 

South-Eastern areas

High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.5 mm.

 

Southern areas

High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.1 mm.

 

South-Western areas 

High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.0 mm.

 

Northern, North-Western areas     

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.5 mm.

 

Central, West-Central and inland areas

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.5 mm.

 

 

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the Second 10 Days of April (11th – 20th) 2021

Figure 2.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the second ten (10) days of April 2021 and percentage probability of occurrence

North-Eastern areas

Moderate chance (60%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.5 mm.

 

South-Western areas

Moderate chance (65 %) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.0 mm.

Highlighted Possible Impact

Farmlands in Trinidad and Tobago have received small to sufficient amounts of rainfall during the last 10 days, particularly on 10th April. Wet days during the first two days and last two days of this dekad will continue to benefit farming in areas across Trinidad and Tobago. However, the somewhat lengthy sunny spells and moderate winds from the 14th will increase evaporation and evapotranspiration rates significantly; and will also increase drying and heat stress possibilities, especially so in young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedling.  Continuing of mostly dry conditions in Tobago will add to existing moderate drying over the island, leading to increased dryness and need for frequent irrigation of crops. Farmers are encouraged to harvest the available rainfall during the period as a dry trend is forecast to take hold from the 14th towards the 17th.

With warm and hot temperatures at this time and occasional moist vegetation, there are increased chances for fungi spread, insect pests and warm weather diseases to develop in crop beds. Given the forecast conditions, farmers should aim to keep moisture in crop root areas for a longer time after rainy periods and wetting, by covering crops root areas with grass (mulching).