Weather Assessment for the period 16^th to 31^st October 2025.

The trend of below normal rainfall has continued late-October, leading to drier than normal conditions in areas of the country, see Dryness/Drought Indicator, Monitor and Outlook | Trinidad & Tobago Meteorological Service. 

From the 16^th to 31^st October below-normal rainfall occurred at Piarco which resulted in a 15-day rainfall total of 51.6 mm, despite two wet days (19^th , 28^th ) and five relatively wet days. At Crown Point, two extremely wet days (19^th, 25^th ) and three wet days (20^th, 22^nd and 31^st ) contributed to a 15-day rainfall total of 113.2 mm. The rainfall totals maps for the period 16^th to 31^st of October for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 16^th to 31^st of October 2025. 

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 16^th to 31^st of October 2025.
 

Temperatures:

During the second half of October, warm nights have continued nationwide, however only Trinidad recorded hot days. Piarco observed two consecutive hot days (maximum temperature at least 34.0 ⁰C) from 16^th to 17^th October with a maximum daytime temperature 34.2 ⁰C (17^th) however, the night-time minimum temperatures ranged from 23.4 ⁰C to 25.3 ⁰C at Piarco. 

Crown Point, Tobago did not observe any hot days (maximum temperatures at least 33.0 ⁰C) however very warm days and nights continued. The maximum daytime temperature was 32.5 ⁰C (16^th, 17^th) and the minimum temperatures ranged from 23.9 ⁰C to 28.6 ⁰C at Crown Point.

Factoring the relative humidity however these temperatures had a ‘real feel’ that was higher than the observed maximum temperature.

Agro-meteorological Forecast: 

Date	Weather			Temperature	Heat Index ‘Feels Like’	Day Moisture (Relative Humidity)	Wind
1	40% chance of rainfall	3-7 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy , hazy, scattered showers / isolated thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/25°C	Feels like 37°C-37°C	61-82%	East-southeast 13-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
2	30% chance of rainfall	1-4 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated showers	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/25°C	Feels like 37°C-38°C	57-67%	East-southeast 13-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
3	30% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated showers	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 37°C-38°C	57-70%	East-southeast 13-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
4	40% chance of rainfall	3-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 38°C-42°C	66-82%	East-southeast 13-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
5	60% chance of rainfall	3-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 38°C-43°C	70-82%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
6	70% chance of rainfall	4-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/23°C	Feels like 38°C-42°C	67-82%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
7	70% chance of rainfall	4-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Mostly cloudy, scattered heavy showers / thunderstorms	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 38°C-40°C	70-80%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
8	70% chance of rainfall	4-20 mm of rainfall is possible	Mostly cloudy, scattered heavy showers / thunderstorms	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 38°C-42°C	75-90%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
9	40% chance of rainfall	4-20 mm of rainfall is possible	Mostly cloudy, scattered heavy showers / thunderstorms	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 38°C-42°C	75-90%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
10	40% chance of rainfall	4-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 37°C-39°C	65-90%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
11	70% chance of rainfall	3-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 37°C-39°C	65-85%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
12	70% chance of rainfall	3-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 38°C-39°C	65-85%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
13	60% chance of rainfall	3-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 38°C-39°C	65-85%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
14	60% chance of rainfall	3-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 37°C-39°C	65-85%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
15	60% chance of rainfall	3-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower / thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 37°C-39°C	65-85%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of November (1^st to 15^th) 2025.

 Figure 3.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (1^st to 15^th November 2025) and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern and North-Eastern areas: High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.9 mm.

South-Eastern areas: High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.8 mm.

Southern areas: High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.8 mm.

South-Western areas: High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.7 mm.

Central, West-Central, and inland areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.9 mm.

Northern, North-Western areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.9 mm. 

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of November (1^st to 15^th) 2025.

Figure 4.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (1^st to 15^th November 2025) and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas: High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.1 mm.

South-Western areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.2 mm.

Trinidad and Tobago:

Rainfall usually increases during the second rainfall peak of the local wet season in November as regional weather systems (mainly the ITCZ) boost rainfall amounts. During the 1^st to 15^th November however, there is a moderate to high (65-75%) chance for near-to or below-normal rainfall. During the first week, following a brief outbreak of drier and fair conditions associated with Saharan dust, increased rainfall is expected through the second week in November. There is a moderate (60%) chance that slightly to moderately dry soils experienced in late October may continue early November in some farmlands especially across the Caroni and Nariva plains in Trinidad and southern Tobago. 

Overall the 15-day period forecast rainfall totals in Trinidad are expected to range between 72 mm and 147 mm favoring eastern plains and northeastern hillsides of Trinidad, see figure 3. In Tobago, 15-day forecast rainfall is expected to range between 76 mm and 137 mm favouring farmlands in eastern and northeastern Tobago such as Roxborough, Goldsborough, see figure 4. 

Temperatures & Winds:

Heat buildup remains likely early-to mid November. There is a moderate heat hazard risk due to both a high (70%) chance of warmer than average nighttime temperatures and a moderate (65%) chance of above normal daytime temperatures. Temperatures are expected to feel as hot as 37°C to 43°C when factoring humidity on the hottest days when daily maximum temperatures of 31-33 °C are forecast. Warm nights with minimum temperatures of 23-26°C are expected favouring southwestern Tobago and western Trinidad).

Generally, moderate east to southeasterly winds (near-to or above- average wind speeds) are expected with a high (80%) chance of occasional gusts of 50 km/h or higher near heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms. Evaporation rates up to 5.0 mm per day on average are expected especially on hot days forecast during the period. 

Moisture levels:

Moderate to high moisture levels are expected across Trinidad and Tobago over the fifteen-day period, with average daytime relative humidity values expected from the high-50s to mid-90s, in terms of percentage.

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

From the 1^st to 15^th, there is a moderate risk of heat hazards for farm workers, young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. The very warm, moist conditions will maintain a moderate to high (70%) chance for fungal spread, insect pests and diseases to develop in crop beds. Saharan dust/air may affect small ruminants and poultry.

Bouts of heavy rainfall will bring a moderate to high risk of street/flash flooding, overfilling ponds, land slippage on fields and access roads. 

Downpours or thunderstorms producing strong gusts will likely damage young plants and flowering mature plants in exposed hilly areas. 

Continue to monitor streams and nearby watercourse levels. Implement pest and disease control measures as recommended. Monitor crops and animals for signs of heat stress and irrigate crops as needed especially in the flowering stage.

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky November (1^st to 15^th) 2025.

The sun is presently at latitude 14.7° degrees South of the Equator. The day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from November 1^st will be 11 hours, 44 minutes decreasing to 11 hours, 38 minutes on November 15^th.

Moon Phases: Full Moon, 5^th and Third Quarter, 12^th. 

According to the tradition of moon phases: 

• November 1^st , 4^th – 5^th  are good days for planting above-ground crops; 
• November 5^th, 8^th–9^th are good days for planting below-ground crops; 
• Remaining days are poor planting days and useful for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.