Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Third Dekad (21st - 31st) of October, 2021
ISSUED AT: 01:40 PM
Date: Wednesday 20th of October 2021
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Summary:
Summary of Expected Weather: Moderate to high rainfall amounts are expected on seven of the fifteen days. Wet days (rainfall amounts between 10.0 and 60.0 mm) are expected on the 21st, 23rd, 25th, 26th, 28th, 31st October and the 2nd of November, with higher amounts in southeastern and southwestern Trinidad and southwestern Tobago. However, eight relatively wet days with rainfall amounts of 1.0 mm to 9.0 mm are expected on the 22nd, 24th, 27th, 29th 30th, 1st, 3rd and 4th of October/November. Trinidad: Partly cloudy to cloudy spells are expected on 21st, 23rd, 25th, 26th, 28th, 31st, and 2nd of October/November, which will likely bring light to moderate/heavy rainfall across farmlands across northwestern, northeastern, eastern, southwestern and central areas of Trinidad. Daily rainfall totals are forecast to be between 10.0 mm and 60.0 mm across different farmlands, with fifteen-day rainfall totals ranging between 100.0 mm and 200.0 mm. The heaviest and most long-lasting rains are expected over farmlands in the northwestern areas of Chaguaramas, northeastern areas of Sangre Grande, Fishing Pond, Plum Mitan and Vega De Oropouche; southwestern areas of Penal, Point Fortin, La Brea, Palo Seco, Granville and Cedros and central areas of Claxton Bay, Couva, Felicity, Chaguanas and Charlieville. However, on the 22nd, 24th, 27th, 29th 30th, 1st, 3rd and 4th of October/November expect partly cloudy conditions with few light to moderate showers with daily rainfall amounts ranging between 1.0 mm to 9.0 mm. Tobago: Tobago will experience similar conditions as compared to Trinidad. Farmers should expect seven days of light to moderate/heavy rainfall amounts particularly on the 21st, 23rd, 25th, 26th, 28th, 31st, and 2nd of October/November. Daily rainfall totals are forecast to be between 10.0 mm and 60.0 mm across farmlands, particularly on the southwestern parts of the island. The fifteen-day rainfall totals will range between 100.0 mm and 125.0 mm across the island. However, on the 22nd, 24th, 27th, 29th 30th, 1st, 3rd and 4th of October/November expect partly cloudy conditions with few light to moderate showers with daily rainfall amounts ranging between 1.0 mm to 9.0 mm, Temperatures & Winds: Most days the maximum temperatures are expected to remain warm (30.0oC) to very warm (33.0oC) throughout most of the period owing to expected afternoon/evening cloud cover. However, temperatures are expected to have a real-feel or feels-like between 32.0oC to 38.0oC on most days. Mostly weak easterly to southeasterly winds of an average speed of 10 km/h are expected, with gusts ranging between 20 km/h to 60 km/h particularly in heavy showers or thundershowers. Moderate to high rainfall totals, mostly below average wind speeds, warm days and moderate feels-like temperatures will sustain below average evapo-transpiration rates in crops ranging between 1.7 to 6.9 millimeters per day. Moisture levels: Over the fifteen-day period across Trinidad and Tobago, moisture levels are expected to be moderate to high, with average daytime relative humidity values in the mid-60s to low-70s, in terms of percentage. While during possible rainy days (21st, 23rd, 25th, 26th, 28th, 31st, and 2nd of October/November), average daytime relative humidity values will be in the low-80s to low-90s, in terms of percentage.
Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Third Dekad (21st - 31st) of October, 2021
ISSUED AT: 01:40 PM
Date: Wednesday 20th of October 2021
Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:
| Term | Meaning | |
|---|---|---|
| Dekad | 10 day rainfall measuring period | |
| Rain Day | A day with 1.0 mm or more of rainfall amount | |
| Wet Day | A day with 10.0 mm or more rainfall amount | |
| Extremely Wet Day | A day with 25.0 mm or more of rainfall amount | |
| Normal Rainfall | Between 75% and 125% of the average | |
| Below Normal Rainfall | Rainfall below 75% of the average | |
| Above Normal Rainfall | Rainfall in excess of 125% of the average | |
| Much Below Normal Rainfall | Rainfall below 50% of the average | |
| Much Above Normal Rainfall | Rainfall above 150% of the average | |
| Scanty Rainfall | Less than 1 mm | |
| Moderate Rainfall | 1-10 mm | |
| Heavy Rainfall | 10-50 mm | |
| Very Heavy Rainfall | Greater than 50 mm | |
| Probability of 1-30 % | Low Chance | |
| Probability of 30-70 % | Moderate Chance | |
| Probability greater than 70 % | High Chance | |
| Term | Amount of Rain | Type of day |
| Scanty Rainfall | Less than 1 mm | Relatively dry day |
| Moderate Rainfall | 1-10 mm | Relatively wet day |
| Heavy Rainfall | 10-50 mm | Wet day |
| Very Heavy Rainfall | Greater than 50 mm | Excessively wet day |
Weather Forecast/Bulletin for Farmers and Livestock Producers of Trinidad and Tobago for the 15-Day period (21st – 4th) of October/November 2021
|
Date |
Weather |
Temperature |
Heat Real Feel |
Day Moisture (Relative) (Humidity) |
Wind |
||
|
21st |
85% chance of light/moderate/heavy showers
|
10.0 to 60.0 mm of rainfall with higher amounts in the southeastern southwestern parts of Trinidad |
Cloudy with light to moderate/heavy showers |
Warm |
Feels like 32-36oC |
86-90% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
22nd |
68% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers |
Very Warm |
Feels like 34-40oC |
66-74% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
23rd |
85% chance of light/moderate/heavy showers
|
10.0 to 60.0 mm of rainfall with higher amounts on the east coast of Trinidad/Tobago |
Cloudy with light to moderate/heavy showers |
Warm |
Feels like 32-36oC |
83-88% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
24th |
68% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall with higher amounts in the western coast of Trinidad/Tobago |
Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers |
Very Warm |
Feels like 34-38oC |
81-85% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
25th |
85% chance of light/moderate/heavy showers
|
10.0 to 60.0 mm of rainfall with higher amounts in the southwestern parts of Trinidad/Tobago |
Cloudy with light to moderate/heavy showers |
Warm |
Feels like 30-34oC |
85-92% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
26th |
85% chance of light/moderate/heavy showers
|
10.0 to 60.0 mm of rainfall with higher amounts in Tobago |
Cloudy with light to moderate/heavy showers |
Warm |
Feels like 30-34oC |
94-97% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
27th |
68% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with showers |
Warm |
Feels like 34-38oC |
76-86% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
28th |
85% chance of light/moderate/heavy showers
|
10.0 to 60.0 mm of rainfall with higher amounts in Tobago |
Cloudy with light to moderate/heavy showers |
Warm |
Feels like 30-34oC |
94-97% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
29th |
68% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with showers |
Very Warm |
Feels like 34-38oC |
70-84% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
30th |
68% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with showers |
Warm |
Feels like 32-38oC |
76-87% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
31st |
75% chance of light/moderate/ heavy showers
|
10.0 to 30.0 mm of rainfall with higher amounts on the eastern parts of Trinidad/Tobago |
Cloudy with light to moderate/heavy showers |
Warm |
Feels like 34-40oC |
74-87% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
1st |
60% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 3.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with few showers |
Very Warm |
Feels like 34-40oC |
65-80% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
2nd |
75% chance of showers
|
10.0 to 30.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Cloudy with light to moderate/heavy showers |
Warm |
Feels like 34-40oC |
79-87% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
3rd |
68% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with showers |
Warm |
Feels like 34-40oC |
70-82% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
|
4th |
68% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with showers |
Warm |
Feels like 34-40oC |
70-82% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
Max Temp 30.0oC
Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of October/November (21st–4th) 2021
Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (21st-4th) October/November 2021 and percentage probability of occurrence.
Eastern, and North-Eastern areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.9 mm.
South-Eastern areas
High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.5 mm.
Southern areas
High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 16.5 mm.
South-Western areas
Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 17.5 mm.
Central, West-Central, and inland areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 14.3 mm.
Northern, North-Western areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 11.6 mm.
Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of October/November (21st–4th) 2021
Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (21st-4th) October/November 2021 and percentage probability of occurrence.
North-Eastern areas
Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 10.0 mm.
South-Western areas
High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 11.4 mm.
Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky October/November (21st–4th) 2021
The sun is presently at 10.5 degrees south latitude and with this position, the day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from October 21st will be 11 hours 50 minutes, reducing steadily to 11 hours and 43 minutes by the 4th November. During the days that may have patchy or partly cloudy skies and particularly during the hours 11:00 am to 3:00 pm, high solar radiation intensity will be experienced. Farmers must be proactive at these times to prevent heat stroke and other heat-related ailments from affecting young, sick livestock and seedlings. Therefore, sufficient shade and ventilation together with fresh cool water provided to livestock when necessary will be essential.
According to the moon phases, the 4th (New Moon phase) of November is a good day for planting aboveground crops, while the 21st, 22nd, 25th, 26th and 27th of October and 1st, 2nd and 3rd of November are good days for planting belowground crops. However, the 23rd, 24th, 28th (Third Quarter phase), 29th, 30th and 31st of October are poor planting days. These days should be used for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.
Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:
Farmlands in Trinidad and Tobago received mostly low to moderate amounts of rainfall during the last dekad (11th-19th) of October. During this third fifteen-day forecast period of (21st to 4th) October/November, expect slightly more rainfall amounts to occur as compared to the last fifteen-day 11th to 25th October forecast period. Mostly sunny mornings will give way to increasingly cloudy afternoons and evenings with wetter conditions mostly on the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of Trinidad and southwestern Tobago. The light winds and moderate to high rainfall amounts in this second fifteen-day period of October will sustain below average evaporation and evapotranspiration rates overall.
There is a low probability (25%) chance for crop irrigation measures at this time owing to the moderate/high rainfall amount and moderate/high soil moisture content expected. However, livestock should be provided with fresh cool water particularly on hot drier periods to rehydrate. There is a moderate probability (60%) chance of heat stress in young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is also a moderate probability (65%) chance for fungi spread, insect pests and warm weather diseases to develop in crop beds. There is also a high probability (80%) chance of root rot and fruit rot on crops owing to the expected moderate/high amount of rainfall and flooded fields and pastures.
River levels will move from moderate levels to high levels at times, particularly on wet days. Therefore, farmers should remain prepared with necessary flood alleviating actions such as using portable water pumps, sandbags and elevated structures on the ground to store animals, seedlings, machinery and other equipment.
Weather Assessment for the period October (11th -19th) 2021.
A mixture of dry and wet conditions occurred across Trinidad and Tobago. The 13th, 14th, 18th and 19th of October were rainy days, while on other days mostly sunny conditions with few showers prevailed. Mostly very warm days, warm winds and low/moderate river levels and moderate moisture content in soils may have stimulated crop growth and development in agricultural lands and vegetation growth in pastures. The rainfall totals maps for the period 11th to 19th of October for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.
Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 11th to 19th of October 2021.
Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 11th to 19th of October 2021.
Temperatures:
Temperatures remained very warm to hot during the period as maximum daytime temperatures ranged between 32.5 ⁰C and 33.8 ⁰C, in Trinidad.
In Tobago, temperatures were warm to very warm, with maximum daytime temperatures ranging between 31.7 ⁰C and 32.8 ⁰C.