Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Second 15-Day Period (16th - 30th) of November, 2023



ISSUED AT: 10:22 AM

Date: Thursday 16th of November 2023

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Summary:

Summary of Expected Weather: 

Moderate rainfall amounts are expected during the fifteen days.

Wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 11.0-25.0 mm are expected on the 17th, 24th and 30th  of November while days with 9.0 mm or less of rainfall are expected on all other days.

Trinidad and Tobago

Wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 11.0-25.0 mm are expected on the 17th, 24th and 30th  of November while days with 9.0 mm or less of rainfall are expected on all other days. The daily rainfall totals are forecast to range between 1.0 mm to 25.0 mm across different farmlands across the islands, especially along the eastern and western coastal areas of Trinidad, and Tobago. The fifteen-day rainfall totals range between 75.0 mm and 125.0 mm in Trinidad, and around 50.0 mm in Tobago.

Temperatures & Winds: 

The maximum temperatures are expected to become warm, with daily temperatures ranging between 29.0oC to 33.0oC throughout the period. However, temperatures are expected to have a real-feel or feels-like between 29.0oC to 40.0oC on most days. The minimum temperatures will range between 22.5oC to 25.0oC during most nights/early mornings, dropping lower in rural areas and valleys. 

In general, mostly weak easterly to southeasterly winds with an average speed of 10-20 km/h are expected. Moderate rainfall totals, mostly light speeds, warm days, and warm feels-like temperatures will sustain average evapotranspiration rates in crops ranging between 2.0 to 9.0 mm per day.

Moisture levels:

Over the fifteen-day period across Trinidad and Tobago, moisture levels are expected to be moderate, with average daytime relative humidity values in the high-50s to low-90s, in terms of percentage. 


Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Second 15-Day Period (16th - 30th) of November, 2023



ISSUED AT: 10:22 AM

Date: Thursday 16th of November 2023


Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:

Term Meaning
Dekad 10 day rainfall measuring period
Rain Day A day with 1.0 mm or more of rainfall amount
Wet Day A day with 10.0 mm or more rainfall amount
Extremely Wet Day A day with 25.0 mm or more of rainfall amount
Normal Rainfall Between 75% and 125% of the average
Below Normal Rainfall Rainfall below 75% of the average
Above Normal Rainfall Rainfall in excess of 125% of the average
Much Below Normal Rainfall Rainfall below 50% of the average
Much Above Normal Rainfall Rainfall above 150% of the average
Scanty Rainfall Less than 1 mm
Moderate Rainfall 1-10 mm
Heavy Rainfall 10-50 mm
Very Heavy Rainfall Greater than 50 mm
Probability of 1-30 % Low Chance
Probability of 30-70 % Moderate Chance
Probability greater than 70 % High Chance
Term Amount of Rain Type of day
Scanty Rainfall Less than 1 mm Relatively dry day
Moderate Rainfall 1-10 mm Relatively wet day
Heavy Rainfall 10-50 mm Wet day
Very Heavy Rainfall Greater than 50 mm Excessively wet day

Weather Bulletin for Farmers and Livestock Producers of Trinidad and Tobago for the 15-day period (16th-30th) of November 2023.

 

Date

Weather

Temperature

Heat

Real

Feel

Day Moisture

(Relative) (Humidity)

Wind

16th                

65% chance of showers

 

Less than 6.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with showers

Warm 

        Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     30.0/23.5

 

 

Feels like

30-33oC

 

 

78-88%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

17th           

75% chance of showers

 

11.0- 25.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers 

Warm       

        Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     29.0/24.0

 

 

Feels like

29-33oC

 

 

75-91%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

18th            

45% chance of showers

 

Less than 3.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with showers

Warm

  Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     33.0/25.0

 

 

Feels like

32-38oC

 

 

59-68%

Weak south-easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

19th 

45% chance of showers

 

Less than 3.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with showers

Warm

        Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     33.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

32-38oC

 

 

59-67%

Weak south-easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

20th 

45% chance of showers

 

Less than 3.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with showers

Warm 

        Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     33.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

32-38oC

 

 

61-70%

Weak south-easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

21st   

65% chance of showers

 

Less than 9.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers

Warm       

        Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     32.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

32-40oC

 

 

68-74%

Weak south-easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

22nd   

65% chance of showers

 

Less than 9.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers

Warm       

        Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     32.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

32-36oC

 

 

67-73%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

23rd     

65% chance of showers

 

Less than 9.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers

Warm 

        Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     32.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

32-37oC

 

 

64-73%

Weak south-easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

24th   

75% chance of showers

 

11.0- 25.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers

Warm       

        Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     30.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

30-33oC

 

 

71-81%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

25th   

55% chance of showers

 

Less than 9.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers

Warm 

        Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     31.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

31-36oC

 

 

67-73%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

26th             

45% chance of showers

 

Less than 6.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with showers

Warm 

  Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     31.0/22.5

 

 

Feels like

31-36oC

 

 

70-82%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

27th     

 

                 

45% chance of showers

 

Less than 6.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with showers

Warm 

     Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     32.0/22.5

 

 

Feels like

32-37oC

 

 

61-68%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

28th  

           

45% chance of showers

 

Less than 5.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with showers

Warm 

    Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     32.0/22.5

 

 

Feels like

32-37oC

 

 

60-71%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

29th         

55% chance of showers

 

Less than 9.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers

Warm 

     Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     32.5/22.5

 

 

Feels like

32-38oC

 

 

54-77%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

30th       

75% chance of showers

 

11.0- 25.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers

   Warm       

     Max/Min  Temperatures  oC     31.0/22.5

 

 

Feels like

31-36oC

 

 

66-74%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 20 km/h

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of November (16th–30th) 2023.

Figure 1.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (16th-30th) November 2023 and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern, and North-Eastern areas 

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.5 mm.

South-Eastern areas

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.5 mm.

Southern areas

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.5 mm.

South-Western areas 

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.5 mm.

Central, West-Central, and inland areas

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.5 mm.

Northern, North-Western areas      

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.5 mm.

 

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of November (16th–30th) 2023.

Figure 2.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (16th-30th) November 2023 and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas 

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.0 mm.

South-Western areas

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.0 mm.

 

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky November (16th–30th) 2023.

The sun is presently at 18.5 degrees South latitude and with this position, the day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from November 1st will be 11 hours and 38 minutes, decreasing slightly to 11 hours and 33 minutes by 3the 0th of November 2023.  According to the moon’s phases, the 16th-17th, 20th (First Quarter Phase)-21st,  and 24th-25th of November are good days for planting aboveground crops, while 2the 9th-30th of November are good days for planting below-ground crops. However, 18th-19th, 22nd-23rd, 26th, 27th (Full Moon Phase), and 28th of November are poor planting days. These days should be used for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields. 

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

During this second 15-day (16th-30th) forecast period of November 2023, expect similarly partly cloudy to cloudy periods with showery episodes as compared to the first 15-day forecast period of November. Mostly light to moderate/heavy showery events will produce some wet days during the forecast period. Therefore, rescheduling  irrigation days on fields to maintain optimal soil moisture would be necessary on days that will have low rainfall. There is a low (30%) chance of heat stress in young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is a moderate (65%) probability for flash and riverine flooding episodes. River levels will be low to moderate at times during the forecast period. There is also a moderate probability (68%) chance for fungi spread, insect pests and warm/moist weather diseases to develop in crop beds.

 

Weather Assessment for the period November (1st-14th) 2023.

Moderate to high amounts of rainfall occurred during the 4th, 7th, 8th, 11th and 14th of November across Trinidad and Tobago. The rainfall total maps for the period, 1st to 14th of November for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 1st to 14th of November 2023.

 

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 1st to 14th of November 2023.

Temperatures:

Temperatures were cool to warm during the period 1st to 14th of November, with the minimum nighttime temperature falling to 23.3 ⁰C and the maximum daytime temperature rising to 33.0 ⁰C, in Trinidad.

Similarly, Tobago temperatures were cool to warm during the period 1st to 14th of November, with the minimum nighttime temperature falling to 23.8 ⁰C and the maximum daytime temperature rising to 33.4 ⁰C.