Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Second 15-Day Period (16th - 31st) of May, 2024



ISSUED AT: 12:13 PM

Date: Thursday 16th of May 2024

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Summary:

Moderate to heavy rainfall amounts are expected during the fifteen days.

 Wet days are expected for the second 15 days of May from 17th – 19th and 22nd – 26th with relatively wet days also possible for the remainder of the period: 16th, 20th – 21st, 27th – 31st with less than 10.0 mm of rainfall expected.

Trinidad and Tobago:

Wet days are expected for the second 15 days of May from 17th – 19th and 22nd – 26th with relatively wet days also possible for the remainder of the period: 16th, 20th – 21st, 27th – 31st with less than 10.0 mm of rainfall expected. The daily rainfall totals are forecast to range between 64.0 mm to 110.0 mm. 

In Trinidad, the 15-day rainfall totals range between 75.0 mm and 110.0 mm across different farmlands favouring the southern, eastern and northeastern areas of Trinidad: Sangre Grande, Fishing Pond; Plum Mitan,Nariva and Manzanilla and southeastern areas of Mayaro, Guayaguayare and Moruga. In Tobago,15-day rainfall totals range between 64.0 mm and 84.0 mm favouring southwestern and eastern Tobago.

Temperatures & Winds:

Very warm to hot conditions are expected. Daily Maximum temperatures range between 31.0°C to 34.0 °C throughout the period. However, temperatures are expected to have a real-feel or feels-like between 35.0 °C to 45.0 °C on most days. The minimum temperatures will range between 24.0 °C to 27.0 °C during most nights/early mornings.

In general, mostly moderate easterly to east-southeasterly winds with an average speed of 20-40 km/h are expected. Moderate to heavy rainfall totals, mostly moderate wind speeds, very warm or hot days, and warm feels-like temperatures will sustain average evapotranspiration rates in crops ranging between 5.0 to 15.0 mm per day.

Moisture levels:

Over the fifteen-day period across Trinidad and Tobago, moisture levels are expected to be moderate to high with average daytime relative humidity values in the lower 50s to upper 70s, in terms of percentage.


Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Second 15-Day Period (16th - 31st) of May, 2024



ISSUED AT: 12:13 PM

Date: Thursday 16th of May 2024


Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:

Term Meaning
Dekad 10 day rainfall measuring period
Rain Day A day with 1.0 mm or more of rainfall amount
Wet Day A day with 10.0 mm or more rainfall amount
Extremely Wet Day A day with 25.0 mm or more of rainfall amount
Normal Rainfall Between 75% and 125% of the average
Below Normal Rainfall Rainfall below 75% of the average
Above Normal Rainfall Rainfall in excess of 125% of the average
Much Below Normal Rainfall Rainfall below 50% of the average
Much Above Normal Rainfall Rainfall above 150% of the average
Scanty Rainfall Less than 1 mm
Moderate Rainfall 1-10 mm
Heavy Rainfall 10-50 mm
Very Heavy Rainfall Greater than 50 mm
Probability of 1-30 % Low Chance
Probability of 30-70 % Moderate Chance
Probability greater than 70 % High Chance
Term Amount of Rain Type of day
Scanty Rainfall Less than 1 mm Relatively dry day
Moderate Rainfall 1-10 mm Relatively wet day
Heavy Rainfall 10-50 mm Wet day
Very Heavy Rainfall Greater than 50 mm Excessively wet day

Weather Bulletin for Farmers and Livestock Producers of Trinidad and Tobago for the 15-day period (16th to the 31st) of May 2024.

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of May (16th –31st) 2024.

Figure 1.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (16th – 31st) May 2024 and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern, and North-Eastern areas:

High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.3 mm.

 

South-Eastern areas:

High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.3 mm.

 

Southern areas

High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.3 mm.

 

South-Western areas

High chance (60%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.3 mm.

 

Central, West-Central, and inland areas

High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.0 mm.

 

Northern, North-Western areas

High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.6 mm.

 

 

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of May (16th – 31st) 2024.

Figure 2.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (16th – 31st) May 2024 and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas

High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.6 mm.

 

South-Western areas

High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.6 mm.

 

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky May (16th – 31st) 2024.

The sun is presently at 19.4 degrees North latitude and with this position, the day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from May 16th will be 12 hours and 37 minutes, increasing to 12 hours and 42 minutes by 31st of May 2024.

According to the moon’s phases (Waxing Full Moon), May 18th – 22nd are good days for planting aboveground crops and leafy vegetables. However, May 23rd – 24th (Full Moon Phase) are poor planting days and should be used for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields. 

The moon begins its darkening phase towards the Third Quarter on May 30th, which by tradition means May 25th –26th and May 29th – 30th are good days for planting belowground crops, especially root crops. 

Summary of Expected Weather:

Moderate to heavy rainfall amounts are expected during the fifteen days.

 Wet days are expected for the second 15 days of May from 17th – 19th and 22nd – 26th with relatively wet days also possible for the remainder of the period: 16th, 20th – 21st, 27th – 31st with less than 10.0 mm of rainfall expected.

Trinidad and Tobago:

Wet days are expected for the second 15 days of May from 17th – 19th and 22nd – 26th with relatively wet days also possible for the remainder of the period: 16th, 20th – 21st, 27th – 31st with less than 10.0 mm of rainfall expected. The daily rainfall totals are forecast to range between 64.0 mm to 110.0 mm. 

In Trinidad, the 15-day rainfall totals range between 75.0 mm and 110.0 mm across different farmlands favouring the southern, eastern and northeastern areas of Trinidad: Sangre Grande, Fishing Pond; Plum Mitan,Nariva and Manzanilla and southeastern areas of Mayaro, Guayaguayare, Moruga Barrackpore and Penal. In Tobago, 15-day rainfall totals range between 64.0 mm and 84.0 mm favouring southwestern and eastern Tobago.

Temperatures & Winds:

Very warm to hot conditions are expected. Daily Maximum temperatures range between 31.0°C to 34.0 °C throughout the period. However, temperatures are expected to have a real-feel or feels-like between 35.0 °C to 45.0 °C on most days. The minimum temperatures will range between 24.0 °C to 27.0 °C during most nights/early mornings.

In general, mostly moderate easterly to east-southeasterly winds with an average speed of 20-40 km/h are expected. Moderate to heavy rainfall totals, mostly moderate wind speeds, very warm or hot days, and warm feels-like temperatures will sustain average evapotranspiration rates in crops ranging between 5.0 to 15.0 mm per day.

Moisture levels:

Over the fifteen-day period across Trinidad and Tobago, moisture levels are expected to be moderate to high with average daytime relative humidity values in the lower 50s to upper 70s, in terms of percentage.

 

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

Wetter conditions are expected for the second half of May.  Partly to variably cloudy and at times breezy with very warm to hot conditions interrupted by cloudy spells with showery outbreaks becoming heavy/thundery at times are expected. The anticipated rainfall, moist and warm conditions are expected to improve soil moisture across Trinidad and Tobago and would be sufficient for greening of grazing pastures especially during the wettest period. However, scheduling of irrigation days on fields to maintain optimal soil moisture would remain necessary on some days. There is a moderate (40%) chance of heat stress in young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is a moderate probability (40-60%) that strong winds and heavy showers may cause physical damage to young plants and flowering mature plants in exposed areas. There is also a low probability (30%) chance for fungi spread, insect pests and warm/moist weather diseases to develop in crop beds.

 

Weather Assessment for the period May 1st to 15th 2024.

Low to extremely-low rainfall amounts continued from the second half of April into the first half of May across Trinidad and Tobago. Hot, dry, hazy and at times breezy conditions occurred across Trinidad and Tobago resulting in scanty rainfall amounts, low river levels and low moisture content in soils.  The rainfall totals maps for the period 1st to 15th of May for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 1st to 15th of May 2024.

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 1st to 15th of May 2024.

Temperatures:

Hot conditions dominated the period 1st – 15th of May. In Trinidad, hot days (temperatures over 34.0 ⁰C) occurred from 1st – 9th, and 11th – 15th and the maximum daytime temperature rose to 35.0 ⁰C. The minimum nighttime temperatures ranged from 24.0 ⁰C to 26.6 ⁰C in Trinidad.

Similarly, temperatures in Tobago were warm to hot during the period 1st – 15th of May as the minimum nighttime temperature ranged from 25.4 ⁰C to 28.2 ⁰C and the maximum daytime temperature rose to 32.9 ⁰C.