Weather Assessment for the period 16^th to 30^th November 2025.

From the 16^th to 30^th November, Piarco observed above-normal rainfall and a 15-day rainfall total of 186.1 mm due to four extremely wet days( 19-20^th, 24-25^th) and one wet day (18^th). Crown Point observed near normal rainfall and a 15-day rainfall total of 100.0 mm due to one extremely wet day (25^th) and three wet days (18^th,20^th,27^th). However, for southwest Tobago, a dry spell has worsened to a budding drought event due to below normal rainfall overall for November at Crown Point. The rainfall totals maps for the period 16^th to 30^th of November for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 16^th to 30^th of November 2025. 

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 16^th to 30^th of November 2025.
 

Temperatures:

During the second half of November, there were no hot days at Piarco  (maximum temperature at least 34.0 ⁰C) with a maximum daytime temperature 32.8 ⁰C (17^th) . Warm nights have continued however as night-time minimum temperatures ranged from 23.2 ⁰C to 24.7 ⁰C at Piarco. 

Crown Point, Tobago also did not observe any hot days (maximum temperatures at least 33.0 ⁰C) however warm days and nights continued. The maximum daytime temperature was 31.6 ⁰C (22^nd) and the minimum temperatures ranged from 23.9 ⁰C to 25.8 ⁰C at Crown Point.

Factoring the relative humidity however these temperatures had a ‘real feel’ that was higher than the observed maximum temperature.

Agro-meteorological Forecast:

Date	Weather			Temperature	Heat Index ‘Feels Like’	Day Moisture (Relative Humidity)	Wind
1	40% chance of rainfall	1-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 35°C-40°C	69-80%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
2	80% chance of rainfall	3-30 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy,breezy, few heavy showers / thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 36°C-38°C	70-85%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
3	80% chance of rainfall	3-30 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy,breezy, few heavy showers / thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 29°C/23°C	Feels like 33°C-34°C	75-90%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
4	60% chance of rainfall	3-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy,breezy, few heavy showers / thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 35°C-39°C	75-90%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
5	40% chance of rainfall	1-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, isolated/scattered showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 37°C-42°C	75-90%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
6	40% chance of rainfall	1-4 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, isolated/scattered showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/22°C	Feels like 37°C-42°C	75-85%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
7	60% chance of rainfall	1-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, hazy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/22°C	Feels like 36°C-41°C	80-90%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
8	60% chance of rainfall	1-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, hazy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 36°C-41°C	80-90%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
9	30% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 37°C-39°C	65-80%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
10	30% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy,breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/22°C	Feels like 35°C-39°C	65-75%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
11	40% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy,breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/22°C	Feels like 35°C-39°C	65-80%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
12	40% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy,breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/22°C	Feels like 37°C-39°C	65-80%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
13	40% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy,breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/22°C	Feels like 37°C-39°C	65-80%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
14	40% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/22°C	Feels like 35°C-36°C	65-80%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
15	40% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/21°C	Feels like 34°C-36°C	65-75%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of December (1^st to 15^th) 2025.

 Figure 3.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (1^st to 15^th December 2025) and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern and North-Eastern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.1 mm.

South-Eastern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.7 mm.

Southern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.3 mm.

South-Western areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.2 mm.

Central, West-Central, and inland areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.2 mm.

Northern, North-Western areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.5 mm. 

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of  December (1^st to 15^th)  2025.

Figure 4.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period  (1^st to 15^th December 2025) and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.6 mm.

South-Western areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.6 mm.

Trinidad and Tobago:

Near normal rainfall amounts are expected across various farmlands from December 1^st to 15^th . Wet days forecast on the 2^nd to 4^th and 7^th to 8^th will bring a moderate to high risk of street/flash flooding on low-lying fields and access roads. During the first week, (1^st to 7^th ) there is a high (75%) chance for near- to above-normal rainfall. During the second week (8^th– 15^th) there is a moderate (60%) chance for near- to below-normal rainfall amounts. During the 15-day period, 1^st to 15^th ,forecast rainfall totals in Trinidad are expected to range between 62 mm and 139 mm favoring eastern Caroni and Nariva plains and hillsides of Trinidad, see figure 3. In Tobago, the 15-day forecast rainfall is expected to range between 57 mm and 108 mm favouring farmlands in eastern and southern Tobago such as Roxborough, and Canaan, see figure 4. 

Temperatures & Winds:

There is a lowered risk of heat hazards early-to-mid December. A moderate (65%) chance of above normal daytime temperatures is expected to offset the high (80%) chance of warmer than average nighttime temperatures. Daily maximum temperatures of 29 °C to 32 °C are forecast, however temperatures are expected to feel as hot as 33 °C to 42 °C when factoring humidity on the hottest days. Generally nighttime minimum temperatures will range from 22 °C to 24 °C, though an occasionally warm 26°C is expected to favour southwestern Tobago.

Generally, moderate east to northeasterly winds at near normal wind speeds are expected with a high (750%) chance of occasional gusts of 50 km/h or higher near heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms. Evaporation rates up to 4.0 mm per day on average are expected especially on warm, breezy days forecast during the period. 

Moisture levels:

Moderate to high moisture levels are expected across Trinidad and Tobago over the fifteen-day period, with average daytime relative humidity values expected from the low-60s to low-90s, in terms of percentage.

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

From the 1^st to 15^th, there is a moderate (65%) chance of heat hazards for farm workers, young livestock, newly germinated/ transplanted seedlings onto fields. Warm and moist conditions will maintain a moderate (65%) chance for fungal spread, insect pests and diseases to develop in crop beds. Saharan dust/air may affect small ruminants and poultry.

Bouts of heavy rainfall will bring a moderate to high risk of street/flash flooding, overfilling ponds, land slippage on fields and access roads. 

Downpours or thunderstorms producing strong gusts will likely damage young plants and flowering mature plants in exposed hilly areas. 

Continue to monitor streams and nearby watercourse levels. Implement pest and disease control measures as recommended. Monitor crops and animals for signs of heat stress and irrigate crops as needed especially in the flowering stage.

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky December (1^st to 15^th) 2025.

The sun is presently at latitude 19° degrees South of the Equator. The day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from December 1^st will be 11 hours, 33 minutes decreasing to 11 hours, 30 minutes on December 15^th.

Moon Phases: Full Moon, 4^th and Third Quarter, 11^th. According to the tradition of moon phases: December 1^st to 2^nd  are good days for planting above-ground crops; December 5^th to 6^th  and 12^th to 15^th  are good days for planting below-ground crops. Remaining days are poor planting days and useful for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.