Weather Assessment for the period January 1^st to 15^th 2025.

January 2025 began with very heavy rainfall resulting in flooded farmlands and waterlogged soils. Crown Point, Tobago, experienced very heavy rainfall from 1^st to 2^nd  of 80.4mm (98% of January rainfall average) that resulted in the 15-day rainfall amount at Crown Point of 88.8 mm. Meanwhile Piarco, Trinidad, experienced heavy rainfall from two wet days and one extremely wet day resulting in a 15-day rainfall amount of 83.3 mm. The rainfall totals maps for the period 1^st to 15^th of January for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 1^st to 15^th of January.

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 1^st to 15^th of January.
 

 Temperatures:

Warm conditions with near-normal temperatures dominated the first half of January. From the 1^st to the 15^th January Piarco observed a maximum daytime temperature of 32.6 ⁰C (10^th) with no hot days (maximum temperatures over 34.0 ⁰C at Piarco). The minimum night-time temperatures ranged from 19.1 ⁰C to 23.6 ⁰C at Piarco. Tobago also experienced warm conditions with a maximum daytime temperature of 31.0 ⁰C (15^th) with no hot days (maximum temperatures above 33.0 ⁰C at Crown Point). The minimum night-time temperatures ranged from 22.5 ⁰C to 25.8 ⁰C at Crown Point. Factoring the relative humidity however, these temperatures had a ‘real feel’ that was higher than the observed temperature.
 

Agro-meteorological Forecast:

Date	Weather			Temperature	Heat ‘Real Feel’	Day Moisture (Relative Humidity)	Wind
16th	60% chance of showers	2-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Fair: Partly cloudy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min  Temperature  31.0 ℃ /21.0 ℃	Feels like 34-37℃	70 - 80%	Easterly 20 - 30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
17th	60% chance of showers	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Fair: Partly cloudy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /21.0 ℃	Feels like 34-38℃	55 - 70%	Easterly 20 - 30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
18th	70% chance of showers	3-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated showers,	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 35-38℃	70 - 80%	Easterly 20 - 30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
19th	70% chance of showers	3-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated showers,	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  30.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 33-36 ℃	61 - 74%	Easterly 20 - 30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
20th	70% chance of showers	2-4 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  30.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 32-36 ℃	55 - 74%	Easterly 20 - 30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
21st	20% chance of showers	2-4 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 33-38 ℃	55 - 74%	Easterly 20 - 30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
22nd	20% chance of showers	2-4 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 35-38℃	61 - 74%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
23rd	20% chance of showers	2-4 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 35-38℃	59 - 74%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
24th	20% chance of showers	2-4 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  32.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 37-44℃	70 - 80%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
25th	60% chance of showers	3-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, showers	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  32.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 37-44℃	70 - 80%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
26th	60% chance of showers	3-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, showers	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  32.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 37-40℃	55 - 70%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
27th	60% chance of showers	3-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, showers	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  32.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 37-40℃	55 - 70%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
28th	70% chance of showers	2-4 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  32.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 33-39℃	55 - 70%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
29th	70% chance of showers	2-4 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  32.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 33-39℃	55 - 75%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
30th	70% chance of showers	3-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  32.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 33-39℃	55 - 75%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
31st	70% chance of showers	3-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  32.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 33-39℃	55 - 75%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of January (16^th – 31^st) 2025.

Figure 1.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (16^th – 31^st) January 2025 and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern and North-Eastern areas: High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.3 mm.

South-Eastern areas:  Moderate chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.8 mm.

 Southern areas: Moderate chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.2 mm.

 South-Western areas: Moderate chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.1 mm.

 Central, West-Central, and inland areas: Moderate chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.0 mm.

 Northern, North-Western areas: Moderate chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.7 mm.

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of January (16^th – 31^st) 2025.

Figure 2.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (16^th – 31^st) January 2025 and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas: High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.3 mm.

South-Western areas: Moderate chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.5 mm.

Trinidad and Tobago:

Although the 2025 dry season has begun, further showery spells expected 16^th to 31^st January will likely result in wetter than usual conditions lingering into this 15-day period. Near-normal to above-normal rainfall amounts are expected 16^th– 31^st January due to relatively wet days with daily rainfall totals forecast up to 8 mm.  

In Trinidad, the 15-day period forecast rainfall totals are expected to range between 36 mm and 80 mm across different farmlands favouring northern, northeastern, and southeastern areas of Trinidad: Blanchisseuse, Valencia,Plum Matin, Rio Claro and Mayaro. In Tobago, 15-day forecast rainfall is likely to range between 45 mm and 80 mm across most farmlands, favouring northern hillsides and eastern areas: Main Ridge Reserve, Charlotteville, Belle Garden and Hillsborough.

Temperatures & Winds:

Warm conditions continue 16^th to 31^st January with a high (80%) chance daytime and nighttime temperatures will be above normal. Forecast daily maximum temperatures will range from 30 °C to 32 °C. Factoring humidity on the hottest days, these temperatures are expected to feel as hot as 37 °C to 40 °C on some days. The minimum temperatures will range from 21.0 °C to 23.0 °C during most nights/early mornings, though lower (19 °C) in hilly areas and sheltered valleys.

Breezy conditions continue with a high (80%) chance of moderate to fresh northeasterly to easterly winds of 20–39 km/h with strong gusts possible. Combined with warmer than usual conditions expect average evapotranspiration rates in crops between 3.0 to 8.0 mm per day.

Moisture levels:

Over the fifteen-day period across Trinidad and Tobago, expect moderate moisture levels with average daytime relative humidity values mainly from the mid-50s to lower-70s, in terms of percentage.

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

Light to moderate showers will interrupt breezy and warm conditions resulting in less evaporative stress. Following the wetter than usual start to January, these showers will maintain lush vegetation and soil moisture across most farmlands during the period. Across western areas of Trinidad however scheduling of irrigation days on fields to maintain optimal soil moisture will likely remain necessary on warm, breezy days. There is a low (20%) chance of heat stress in young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is a moderate probability (60%) that strong gusts may damage young plants and flowering mature plants in exposed hilly areas. There is a moderate probability (60%) chance for fungal spread, insect pests and warm/moist weather diseases to develop in crop beds. 

 Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky January (16^th – 31^st ) 2025.

The sun is presently 20.8° South of the Equator and the day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago on January 16^th will be 11 hours, 34 minutes and 40 seconds increasing to 11 hours, 40 minutes 30 seconds on January 31^st.

Moon Phases: Third Quarter, 21^st; New Moon, 29^th. According to the tradition of moon’s phases: January 18^th – 20^th and 26^th – 27^th are good days for planting below-ground crops; 30^th —31^st are good days for planting above-ground; the remaining days are poor planting days and useful for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.