ISSUED AT: 09:06 AM

Date: Wednesday 17th of April 2024

Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:

Weather Bulletin for Farmers and Livestock Producers of Trinidad and Tobago for the 15-day period (16^th to the 30^th) of April 2024.

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of April (16^th – 30^th) 2024.

Figure 1.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (16^th -30^th) April 2024 and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern, and North-Eastern areas:

Moderate chance (30%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.6 mm. 

South-Eastern areas:

Moderate chance (30%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.6 mm

Southern areas

Moderate chance (40%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.6 mm

South-Western areas 

Moderate chance (40%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.3 mm

Central, West-Central, and inland areas

Moderate chance (60%) of mean daily rainfall up to 0.6 mm

Northern, North-Western areas

Moderate chance (40%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.3 mm

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of April (16^th – 30^th) 2024.

Figure 2.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (16^th - 30^th) April 2024 and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas 

Moderate chance (30%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2 mm

South-Western areas

Moderate chance (40%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.3 mm

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky April (16^th – 30^th) 2024.

The sun is presently at 10.5 degrees North latitude and with this position, the day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from April 16^th will be 12 hours and 23 minutes, increasing slightly to 12 hours and 30 minutes by 30^th of April 2024. 

According to the moon’s phases, the (Full Moon Phase) 20^th – 22^nd are good days for planting aboveground crops and 23^rd – 24^th and 28^th – 29^th of April are good days for planting belowground crops. However, the 15^th – 19^th (First Quarter Phase) and 30^th of April are poor planting days. These days should be used for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.

Summary of Expected Weather: 

Mainly low to moderate rainfall amounts are expected during the fifteen days.

Wet days are expected for the second 15 days of April, from 19^th – 20^th with relatively wet days also possible on 21^st, 25^th - 27^th with less than 10.0 mm of rainfall, while on other days less than 3.0 mm is expected.

Trinidad and Tobago: 

Wet days are expected for the second 15 days of April, from 19^th – 20^th with relatively wet days also possible on 21^st, 25^th - 27^th with less than 10.0 mm of rainfall, while on other days less than 3.0 mm is expected.

The daily rainfall totals are forecast to range between 3.0 mm to 6.0 mm across different farmlands across the islands, favouring the southern, eastern and northeastern coastal areas of Trinidad and southwestern Tobago. The 15-day rainfall totals range between 10.0 mm and 40.0 mm in Trinidad, and range between 20.0 mm and 30.0 mm in Tobago.

Temperatures & Winds: 

Hot conditions are expected. Daily Maximum temperatures range between 32.0^°C to 34.0 °C throughout the period. However, temperatures are expected to have a real-feel or feels-like between 36.0 °C to 45.0 °C on most days. The minimum temperatures will range between 23.0 °C to 24.0 °C during most nights/early mornings, dropping lower in rural areas and valleys. 

In general, mostly moderate easterly to east-southeasterly winds with an average speed of 20-40 km/h are expected. Low rainfall totals, mostly moderate wind speeds, very warm or hot days, and warm feels-like temperatures will sustain average evapotranspiration rates in crops ranging between 5.0 to 15.0 mm per day. 

Moisture levels:

Over the fifteen-day period across Trinidad and Tobago, moisture levels are expected to be low to moderate with average daytime relative humidity values in the lower 50s to lower 80s, in terms of percentage. 

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

Expect a few showery interruptions during the second week in April. Mostly sunny, breezy with very warm to hot conditions interrupted by cloudy spells with showery outbreaks are expected during this second 15-day forecast period of April 2024. Therefore, greening of grazing pastures should continue. However, scheduling of irrigation days on fields to maintain optimal soil moisture would be necessary on most days. There is a moderate (40%) chance of heat stress in young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is a moderate probability (40-60%) that strong winds may cause physical damage to young plants and flowering mature plants in exposed areas. There is also a low probability (30%) chance for fungi spread, insect pests and warm/moist weather diseases to develop in crop beds.

Weather Assessment for the period April 1^st to 15^th 2024.

Moderate to heavy rainfall amounts occurred during the first half of April across Trinidad and Tobago. The rainfall totals maps for the period 1^st to 15^th of April for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 1^st to 15^th of April 2024.

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 1^st to 15^th of April 2024.

Temperatures:

Temperatures were warm to hot during the period 1^st – 15^th of April with the minimum nighttime temperature ranging from 22.6 ⁰C (10^th April) to 25.2 ⁰C (5^th April) and the maximum daytime temperature rising to 34.2 ⁰C (1^st April), in Trinidad.

Similarly, Tobago temperatures were warm to hot during the period 1^st – 15^th of April with the minimum nighttime temperature ranging from 24.2 ⁰C (3^rd April) to 27.0 ⁰C (4^th April) and the maximum daytime temperature rising to 32.8 ⁰C (2^nd April).