Weather Assessment for the period 1^st to 15^th  April, 2025.

The short-lived La Niña conditions, responsible for the very wet start to the 2025 Dry season, ended in March. Presently neither La Niña nor El Niño (neutral conditions) are expected through October 2025 (ENSO Monitor Update). Near-normal rainfall amounts would usually occur during these neutral conditions but not always, so local and regional rainfall climatic systems will mainly influence rainfall amounts. 

Following much below normal rainfall in March, Tobago’s rainfall rebounded with much above normal rainfall 1^st-to 15^th, with two wet days and a 15-day rainfall amount at Crown Point of 46 mm or 96% of the April average rainfall. In Trinidad however, scanty rainfall at Piarco produced 17.8 mm, or 35% of the April average rainfall which is much below normal.  

The rainfall totals maps for the period 1^st to 15^th of April for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 1^st to 15^th of April.

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 1^st to 15^th of April.
 

Temperatures:

Over the first 15-days of April, higher temperatures during the past 15 days would have accelerated crop development but also increased the risk of moderate heat stress in some areas.  Although warm to very warm nights dominated the period no hot days were recorded at Piarco (maximum temperature over 34.0 ⁰C), The minimum night-time temperatures ranged from 22.8 ⁰C to 25.2 ⁰C at Piarco, and the maximum daytime temperature was 33.6 ⁰C (14^th). Tobago experienced very warm night-time conditions but no hot days (maximum temperatures above 33.0 ⁰C at Crown Point). The maximum daytime temperature was 31.7 ⁰C (12^th) and the minimum night-time temperatures ranged from 23.1 ⁰C to 26.4 ⁰C at Crown Point. Factoring the relative humidity however these temperatures had a ‘real feel’ that was higher than the observed maximum temperature.

Agro-meteorological Forecast:

Date	Weather			Temperature	Heat ‘Real Feel’	Day Moisture (Relative Humidity)	Wind
16	40% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, breezy.	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 36°C-39°C	55-65%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
17	60% chance of rainfall	3-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 37°C-40°C	60-70%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
18	60% chance of rainfall	3-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 37°C-40°C	60-70%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
19	40% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, breezy.	Hot  Max/Min Temperatures 34°C/24°C	Feels like 38°C-47°C	50-70%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
20	60% chance of rainfall	3-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, thunderstorm, breezy	Hot Max/Min Temperatures 34°C/24°C	Feels like 38°C-47°C	50-70%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
21	60% chance of rainfall	3-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, thunderstorm, breezy	Hot Max/Min Temperatures 34°C/23°C	Feels like 40°C-47°C	55-70%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
22	60% chance of rainfall	3-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, thunderstorm, breezy	Hot Max/Min Temperatures 34°C/23°C	Feels like 40°C-47°C	55-70%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
23	60% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy	Hot Max/Min Temperatures 34°C/24°C	Feels like 38°C-47°C	50-70%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
24	60% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 36°C-43°C	50-70%	East 30-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
25	60% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/23°C	Feels like 38°C-43°C	55-70%	East 30-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
26	40% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/23°C	Feels like 38°C-43°C	55-70%	East 30-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
27	40% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/23°C	Feels like 38°C-43°C	55-70%	East-southeast 30-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
28	40% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/23°C	Feels like 40°C-43°C	60-70%	East-southeast 30-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
29	70% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, thunderstorm, breezy	Hot Max/Min Temperatures 34°C/24°C	Feels like 42°C-47°C	60-70%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
30	70% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, thunderstorm, breezy	Hot  Max/Min Temperatures 34°C/24°C	Feels like 42°C-47°C	60-70%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of April (16^th to 30^th) 2025.

Figure 1.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (16^th to 30^th) April 2025 and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern and North-Eastern areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.1 mm.

South-Eastern areas:  Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.3 mm.

Southern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.1 mm.

South-Western areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.1 mm.

Central, West-Central, and inland areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.4 mm.

 Northern, North-Western areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.4 mm. 

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of April (16^th to 30^th) 2025.

Figure 2.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (16^th to 30^th) April 2025 and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.8 mm.

South-Western areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.4 mm.

Trinidad and Tobago:

During the 15-day period, brisk-moving bands of moisture are expected to interrupt the fair conditions with a few light or moderate showers and a low to moderate chance of a heavy shower or thunderstorm favoring areas of southeastern Tobago, eastern and southern Trinidad.

In Trinidad, the 15-day period forecast rainfall totals are expected to range between 20 mm and 45 mm across most farmlands, though isolated higher amounts of 60mm are possible  for southwestern and northeastern Trinidad. In Tobago, 15-day forecast rainfall is expected to range between 20 mm and 30 mm favoring farmlands along hillsides.

Temperatures & Winds:

Trinidad Tobago is in the first peak of the heat season (April-). During 16^th  to 30^th  there is a moderate (60-70%) chance of warmer than average daytime and nighttime temperatures nationwide, with hot days and a couple of short duration hot spells forecast over central and western Trinidad, and south western Tobago. Forecast daily maximum temperatures will range from 31-33 °C in Tobago and 32-34 °C in Trinidad. Though feeling comfortable on most breezy/windy days, when factoring humidity on the warmest days these temperatures are expected to feel as hot as 36-42°C. Minimum temperature of 24.0°C is expected during most nights/early mornings, though higher near western areas and coastlines.

Breezy conditions are expected to continue with a moderate (70%) chance of moderate to fresh easterly winds up to 39 km/h with higher gusts possible. Combined with near-to, or above normal temperatures, evapotranspiration rates in crops of 3.0 mm to 7.0 mm per day are expected.

Moisture levels:

Low to moderate moisture levels are expected across Trinidad and Tobago over the fifteen-day period, with average daytime relative humidity values mainly ranging from the mid-50s to high-70s, in terms of percentage.

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

Mainly light to moderate rainfall and partly cloudy to cloudy, hazy and breezy conditions will maintain browning of vegetation and lowering of soil moisture across farmlands in western and central areas of Trinidad: namely Caroni and Couva. Farmers should be prepared to increase irrigation and monitor crops and animals for signs of heat stress. Increased evaporation is expected to favour northwestern, western and central areas of Trinidad, thus scheduling of irrigation days on fields to maintain optimal soil moisture will remain necessary. Heat stress risk is expected to gradually increase with a moderate (70%) chance of heat stress for farm workers, young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is a moderate risk (60% chance) that strong gusts may damage young plants and flowering mature plants in exposed hilly areas. There is a low (30%) chance for fungal spread, insect pests and warm/moist weather diseases to develop in crop beds.

Continue to monitor soil moisture closely and irrigate as needed, especially for crops in the flowering stage. Implement pest and disease control measures as recommended. Consider applying mulch to conserve soil moisture and reduce soil temperature.

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky April (16^th to 30^th) 2025.

The sun is presently overhead at latitude 10.3 degrees North of the Equator. The day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago on April 16^th will be 12 hours, 22 minutes increasing to 12 hours, 30 minutes on April 30^th.

Moon Phases: Third Quarter, 20^th; New Moon, 27^th. According to the tradition of moon phases: April 18^rd  – 19^th and 23^rd – 24^th are good days for planting below-ground crops; 27^th – 28^th are good days for planting above-ground; the remaining days are poor planting days and useful for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.