Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Third Dekad (21st - 30th) of September, 2022
ISSUED AT: 06:09 PM
Date: Friday 23rd of September 2022
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Summary:
Moderate to high rainfall amounts are expected on four of the fifteen days.
Four wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 10.0 mm and 40.0 mm are expected on the 21st-24th of September, while eleven relatively wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 1.0 mm and 9.0 mm are expected on the 25th-5th of September/October.
Trinidad:
Four wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 10.0 mm and 40.0 mm are expected on the 21st-24th of September, while eleven relatively wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 1.0 mm and 9.0 mm are expected on the 25th-5th of September/October. The daily rainfall totals are forecast to range between 1.0 mm to 40.0 mm across different farmlands, with fifteen-day rainfall totals ranging between 60.0 mm and 100.0 mm. The impactful rainfall events will mostly occur across the northeastern, southeastern, southwestern and northwestern parts of Trinidad. There is a high (80%) probability that flash and riverine flooding will occur during/after heavy rainfall events.
Tobago:
Similar to Trinidad, Tobago will experience four wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 10.0 mm and 40.0 mm are expected on the 21st-24th of September, while eleven relatively wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 1.0 mm and 9.0 mm are expected on the 25th-5th September/October. The daily rainfall totals are forecast to range between 1.0 mm to 40.0 mm across different farmlands across the island, with fifteen-day rainfall totals averaging around 100.0 mm.
Temperatures & Winds:
The maximum temperatures are expected to remain warm, with temperatures ranging between 29.0oC to 33.0oC throughout the period. However, temperatures are expected to have a real-feel or feels-like between 32.0oC to 45.0oC on most days. The minimum temperatures will range between 23.0oC to 25.0oC during most nights/early mornings, dropping lower in rural areas and valleys.
In general, mostly weak easterly to south-easterly winds of an average speed of 10-20 km/h are expected, however gusts can reach speeds of up to 50-70 km/h especially during heavy showers. Moderate to high rainfall totals, mostly low wind speeds, warm to very warm days and warm feels-like temperatures will sustain average evapotranspiration rates in crops ranging between 1.0 to 8.0 millimeters per day.
Moisture levels:
Over the fifteen-day period across Trinidad and Tobago, moisture levels are expected to be moderate to high, with average daytime relative humidity values in the lower-60s to lower-90s, in terms of percentage.
Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Third Dekad (21st - 30th) of September, 2022
ISSUED AT: 06:09 PM
Date: Friday 23rd of September 2022
Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:
| Term | Meaning | |
|---|---|---|
| Dekad | 10 day rainfall measuring period | |
| Rain Day | A day with 1.0 mm or more of rainfall amount | |
| Wet Day | A day with 10.0 mm or more rainfall amount | |
| Extremely Wet Day | A day with 25.0 mm or more of rainfall amount | |
| Normal Rainfall | Between 75% and 125% of the average | |
| Below Normal Rainfall | Rainfall below 75% of the average | |
| Above Normal Rainfall | Rainfall in excess of 125% of the average | |
| Much Below Normal Rainfall | Rainfall below 50% of the average | |
| Much Above Normal Rainfall | Rainfall above 150% of the average | |
| Scanty Rainfall | Less than 1 mm | |
| Moderate Rainfall | 1-10 mm | |
| Heavy Rainfall | 10-50 mm | |
| Very Heavy Rainfall | Greater than 50 mm | |
| Probability of 1-30 % | Low Chance | |
| Probability of 30-70 % | Moderate Chance | |
| Probability greater than 70 % | High Chance | |
| Term | Amount of Rain | Type of day |
| Scanty Rainfall | Less than 1 mm | Relatively dry day |
| Moderate Rainfall | 1-10 mm | Relatively wet day |
| Heavy Rainfall | 10-50 mm | Wet day |
| Very Heavy Rainfall | Greater than 50 mm | Excessively wet day |
Weather Bulletin for Farmers and Livestock Producers of Trinidad and Tobago for the 15-day period (21st-05th) of September/October 2022.
|
Date |
Weather |
Temperature |
Heat Real Feel |
Day Moisture (Relative) (Humidity) |
Wind |
||
|
21st |
80% chance of showers
|
10.0 to 25.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Cloudy with light/mod occasional heavy showers |
Warm |
Feels like 29-33oC |
69-90% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
22nd |
80% chance of showers
|
10.0 to 40.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Cloudy with light/mod occasional heavy showers |
Warm |
Feels like 29-33oC |
69-90% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
23rd |
70% chance of showers
|
10.0 to 25.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Cloudy with light/mod occasional heavy showers |
Warm |
Feels like 32-36oC |
69-80% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
24th |
70% chance of showers
|
10.0 to 15.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Cloudy with light/mod occasional heavy showers |
Warm |
Feels like 33-39oC |
69-80% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
25th |
60% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with few showers |
Warm |
Feels like 33-38oC |
64-66% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
26th |
60% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with few showers |
Warm |
Feels like 33-38oC |
64-66% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
27th |
60% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with few showers |
Warm |
Feels like 33-38oC |
76-85% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
28th |
60% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with few showers |
Warm |
Feels like 33-36oC |
77-81% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
29th |
60% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with few showers |
Warm |
Feels like 34-40oC |
79-84% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
30th |
60% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with few showers |
Warm |
Feels like 34-40oC |
75-78% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
1st |
60% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 5.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with few showers |
Warm |
Feels like 34-45oC |
64-70% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
2nd
|
60% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 5.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with few showers |
Warm |
Feels like 34-45oC |
64-70% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
3rd
|
60% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 5.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with few showers |
Warm |
Feels like 34-45oC |
64-70% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
4th |
60% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 5.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with few showers |
Warm |
Feels like 34-45oC |
64-70% |
Weak south-easterly 15 km/h Gust 25 km/h |
|
5th |
60% chance of showers
|
1.0 to 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible |
Partly cloudy with few showers |
Warm |
Feels like 33-38oC |
75-79% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 15 km/h |
Max/Min Temperatures oC 29.0/24.5
Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of September/October (21st –5th) 2022.
Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (21st-05th) September/October 2022 and percentage probability of occurrence.
Eastern, and North-Eastern areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.8 mm.
South-Eastern areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.4 mm.
Southern areas
Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 9.0 mm.
South-Western areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 9.6 mm.
Central, West-Central, and inland areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.0 mm.
Northern, North-Western areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.6 mm.
Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of September/October (21st –5th) 2022
Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (21st-05th) September/October 2022 and percentage probability of occurrence.
North-Eastern areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 10.0 mm.
South-Western areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 10.0 mm.
Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky September/October (21st –5th) 2022.
The sun is presently at 1.2 degrees North latitude and with this position, the day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from September 21st will be 12 hours and 09 minutes, decreasing slightly to 11 hours and 59 minutes by 5th October 2022. According to the moon’s phases, the 25th (New Moon Phase)-29th of September and 2nd (First Quarter Phase)-3rd are good days for planting aboveground crops. There are no good days for planting belowground crops at this time. However, the 21st-24th, 30th of September and 1st, 4th-5th of October are poor planting days. These days should be used for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.
Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:
During this third 15-day forecast period of (21st to 5th) September/October 2022, expect wetter conditions to occur as compared to the second 15-day (11th to 25th) September forecast period. There is a low probability (25%) chance for crop irrigation measures to take place due to gradually moistening soils during the forecast period. However, livestock should be provided with fresh, cool water during this forecast period to rehydrate, particularly during warmer and drier periods. During the second half of the forecast period, drier days when temperatures become higher are expected, there is a moderate probability (40%) chance of heat stress in young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is also a moderate probability (60%) chance for fungi spread, root and/or fruit rot, insect pests and warm weather diseases to develop in crop beds. River levels will become high at times during the 21st-24th of September and will in general return to moderate to low levels during the rest of the forecast period.
Weather Assessment for the period September (11th-19th) 2022
Wet days occurred on the 11th-13th, 16th and 18th of September over Trinidad and Tobago. Low to moderate rainfall amounts that occurred across the islands assisted in replenishing soil moisture. Crop growth and development rates in general across agricultural lands and vegetation growth in pastures had decreased somewhat while river levels varied accordingly. The rainfall totals maps for the period, 11th to 19th of September for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.
Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 11th to 19th September 2022.
Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 11th to 19th September 2022.
Temperatures:
Temperatures were cool to warm during the period 11th to 19th September, as the minimum nighttime temperature falling to 23.4 ⁰C and the maximum daytime temperature rising to 34.4 ⁰C, in Trinidad.
Similarly, Tobago temperatures were cool to warm during the period 11th to 19th September, with the minimum nighttime temperature falling to 24.8⁰C and the maximum daytime temperature rising to 32.3 ⁰C.