Summary of Expected Conditions

From 1^st to 15^th October 2026, expect below-normal rainfall (50% or greater chance) despite wet days forecast on 2^nd - 5^th , 8^th - 9^th , 12^th - 13^th October 2026. Heat-related hazards are likely with an increased chance (80%  probability) for moderately severe heat lasting three days across eastern Trinidad, Tobago. 

Drought Watch for Tobago, northeast Trinidad by the end of October 2026, https://www.metoffice.gov.tt/our-services/dryness-drought-indicator-monitor-and-outlook 

Hot Spell Alert - Yellow level issued for 24 September to October 31 2026, https://www.metoffice.gov.tt/alert 

Likely Impacts for Agriculture 

• Moderate to severe heat stress is possible for poultry and small livestock. 
• Higher evaporation rates and decreased soil moisture
• Increased wilting
• Higher flood risk on low-lying fields or access roads expected during 3 wet days. 
• Higher humidity over crop beds raises risk of fungal, bacterial and viral infections. 
• Gusts may damage young plants, flowering mature plants on exposed hillsides. Occasional Saharan dust/air will affect small livestock and poultry. 

Suggested Actions

• Monitor small and large livestock for heat stress.
• Increase cooling and ventilation for small and large livestock. 
• Monitor water use and maintain adequate water storage on fields.
• Ensure regular weeding to reduce competition and water stress on crops.
• Monitor moisture-related pests and plan for disease control.
• Practice soil moisture conservation like mulching and trenches
• Maintain wind-breaks and irrigate crops especially in the flowering stage.

Recent Weather Assessment for the period 16^th to 30^th September 2026

Recent Rainfall 

From 16^th to 30^th September, rainfall was below-normal at Crown Point in southwest Tobago, 28.9 mm with one wet day (28^th). In Trinidad, rainfall was below normal at Piarco, 57.8 mm with three wet days (17^th,24^th,28^th ). The rainfall totals maps for the period 16^th to 30^th September 2026 for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2, respectively.

Map 1 and Map 2. Rainfall maps of Trinidad and Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period  16^th to 30^th of September 2026. 

Recent Temperatures

From the 16^th to 30^th September in Trinidad, Piarco observed one hot day (maximum temperature at least 34.0 ⁰C) on the 22^nd however above-normal temperatures occurred for 9 days and 14 nights. In Tobago, Crown Point observed two hot days (maximum temperature at least 33.0 ⁰C) on 22^nd, 25^th with a maximum of 33.1 ⁰C (25^th) and above-normal temperatures for 14 days and 15 nights. Factoring the relative humidity however, these temperatures had a ‘real feel’ that is higher than the observed maximum temperature. 

Agro-meteorological Forecast for the 15-Day period of October (1^st to 15^th) 2026

Date	Weather			Temperature	Heat Index ‘Feels Like’	Day Moisture (Relative Humidity)	Wind
1	70% chance of rainfall	2-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 38°C-42°C	67-75%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
2	70% chance of rainfall	2-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, scattered showers,isolated thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/25°C	Feels like 39°C-40°C	61-86%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
3	70% chance of rainfall	2-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy,hazy, scattered showers, isolated thunderstorm	Hot Max/Min Temperatures 34°C/25°C	Feels like 39°C-43°C	61-86%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
4	60% chance of rainfall	2-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy,hazy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 39°C-44°C	71-82%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
5	60% chance of rainfall	2-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, hazy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/25°C	Feels like 38°C-38°C	62-82%	East 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
6	40% chance of rainfall	1-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers, isolated thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/25°C	Feels like 39°C-41°C	65-76%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
7	40% chance of rainfall	1-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 39°C-41°C	65-76%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
8	60% chance of rainfall	1-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 37°C-38°C	55-75%	East 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
9	60% chance of rainfall	1-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 37°C-38°C	55-76%	East-southeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
10	40% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy,hazy, isolated showers	Hot  Max/Min Temperatures 34°C/24°C	Feels like 38°C-40°C	54-75%	East-northeast 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
11	40% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy,hazy, isolated showers	Hot  Max/Min Temperatures 34°C/25°C	Feels like 39°C-40°C	55-75%	East 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
12	70% chance of rainfall	1-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/25°C	Feels like 38°C-40°C	60-77%	East 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
13	70% chance of rainfall	1-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/25°C	Feels like 38°C-40°C	60-80%	East 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
14	60% chance of rainfall	1-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers, isolated thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 39°C-40°C	60-81%	East 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
15	60% chance of rainfall	1-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers, isolated thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 39°C-40°C	60-84%	East 11-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h

Weather Outlook for the 15-Day period of October (1^st to 15^th) 2026

From 1^st to 15^th October 2026, generally hot, partly cloudy, scattered showers, becoming heavy and or thundery at times with gusty winds are expected, however tropical cyclone activity is not expected to affect Trinidad and Tobago during the 7 days up to 7^th October 2026. Drought conditions developing.

Wet Day / Wet Spell Outlook

Wet days ( ≥ 10 mm) are expected on 2nd - 5th , 8th - 9th , 12th - 13th October 2026, with a high flood risk on low-lying fields/ access roads during a 3-day wet spell. 

Rainfall

In Trinidad from 1^st to 15^th October 2026, below-normal rainfall is expected. High chance (75% to 80% probability) of the highest rainfall totals will range from 21 mm to 122 mm favouring northeastern hillsides Trinidad near Sangre Grande, Valencia, North Oropouche and Santa Cruz, see map 3. 

In Tobago from 1^st to 15^th October 2026, below-normal rainfall is likely in Crown Point and southwestern Tobago with a high chance (75% probability) of the highest rainfall totals will range from 21 mm to 72 mm favouring inland hillsides of the Main Ridge, see map 4. 

Temperatures 

From 1^st to 15^th October 2026, hot spells and heat-related hazards are likely with an increased chance (80%  probability) for moderately severe heat lasting three days across farmlands in eastern Trinidad, Tobago. Daily maximum temperatures are expected to reach 34°C in Trinidad and 33°C in Tobago and conditions could feel like 37 °C to 44 °C, when factoring humidity on the hottest days. Warmer than usual nights with minimum temperatures above 24°C are likely (high chance, 80% probability). 

Winds 

From 1^st to 15^th October 2026, expect near-normal strength wind speeds generally east to southeasterly. However, gusts 55 km/or higher are likely near thunderstorms. 

Moisture levels 

From 1^st to 15^th October 2026, very humid conditions are expected with daytime relative humidity levels ranging from the mid-50s to high-80s in terms of percentage. However on hot days higher evaporation rates of 5 to 7 mm per day are expected to lower soil moisture across Tobago in particular. 

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of October (1^st to 15^th) 2026

Figure 3.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (1^st to 15^th October 2026) and probability of occurrence.

Eastern and North-Eastern areas: High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.8 mm.

South-Eastern areas: High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.1 mm.

Southern areas: High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.1 mm.

South-Western areas: High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.1 mm.

Central, West-Central, and inland areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.0 mm.

Northern, North-Western areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.3 mm. 

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of October (1^st to 15^th) 2026

Figure 4.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (1^st to 15^th October 2026) and probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.9 mm.

South-Western areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.1 mm.

Seasonal Precipitation forecast for October to December 2026 

During October to December 2026, moderate chances exist for below normal rainfall over Trinidad and Tobago with flooding potential is low to moderate, see Rainfall and Temperature Outlook.

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky for October (1^st to 15^th) 2026

On the 1^st October 2026, the sun is overhead at latitude 3.3 ° South of the Equator. The day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago on the 1^st will be 12 hours, 1 minute decreasing to 11 hours, 53 minutes on the 15^th October 2026.

Moon Phases: Third Quarter 3^rd and New Moon 10^th. According to the tradition of moon phases: October 3^rd – 4^th are good days for planting below-ground crops, transplanting, pruning and harvesting. Remaining days are poor planting days and useful for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.

Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin