Weather Assessment for the period 1^st to 15^th July, 2025.

During the first 15-day period, near normal to below normal rainfall occurred across various farmlands despite several wet and extremely wet days. At Piarco, two wet days and one extremely wet day (9^th) contributed to below normal rainfall totaling 66.9 mm. At Crown Point, two extremely wet days (6^th ,10^th ) and one wet day contributed to a near normal 15-day rainfall total of 95.6 mm at Crown Point. The rainfall totals maps for the period 1^tt to 15^th of July for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 1^st to 15^th of July.

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 1^st to 15^th of July.
 

Temperatures:

So far, the first half of July, the days have been as warm as usual however nights have remained warmer than normal. Piarco observed no hot days (maximum temperature over 34.0 ⁰C) with a maximum daytime temperature 33.2 ⁰C (14^th) however, the night-time minimum temperatures ranged from 22.7 ⁰C to 24.6 ⁰C at Piarco. Tobago also experienced the majority of warm nights with no hot days (maximum temperatures above 33.0 ⁰C at Crown Point). The maximum daytime temperature was 31.3 ⁰C (12^th) and the minimum temperatures ranged from 23.9 ⁰C to 25.7 ⁰C at Crown Point. Factoring the relative humidity however these temperatures had a ‘real feel’ that was higher than the observed maximum temperature.

Date	Weather			Temperature	Heat ‘Real Feel’	Day Moisture (Relative Humidity)	Wind
16th	40% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, few showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 34°C-35°C	53-76%	East 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
17th	70% chance of rainfall	3-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, gusty, heavy showers/ thunderstorms	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 36°C-40°C	77-86%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
18th	70% chance of rainfall	5-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Mostly cloudy, hazy, gusty, a heavy shower/ thunderstorms	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/24°C	Feels like 35°C-40°C	77-92%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
19th	60% chance of rainfall	5-12 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, hazy, gusty, showers/ isolated thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 30°C/23°C	Feels like 34°C-35°C	70-85%	East 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
20th	60% chance of rainfall	3-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, showers, isolated thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 34°C-36°C	64-83%	East 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
21st	60% chance of rainfall	5-12 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, showers, isolated thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 33°C-36°C	64-72%	East-northeast 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
22nd	60% chance of rainfall	5-12 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, showers, isolated thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 30°C-37°C	67-90%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
23rd	70% chance of rainfall	5-12 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, a heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 31°C-39°C	67-82%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
24th	70% chance of rainfall	3-9 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, showers, isolated thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 33°C-38°C	63-85%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
25th	70% chance of rainfall	5-12 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, a heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 32°C-38°C	70-87%	East-southeast 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
26th	70% chance of rainfall	5-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, a heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 33°C-39°C	75-90%	East 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
27th	70% chance of rainfall	5-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, a heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 32°C-39°C	75-90%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
28th	70% chance of rainfall	5-9 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, showers, isolated thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 32°C-42°C	75-90%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
29th	70% chance of rainfall	5-9 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, showers, isolated thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 33°C-43°C	77-86%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
30th	70% chance of rainfall	5-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Variably cloudy, breezy, showers, isolated thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 34°C-40°C	78-88%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
31st	70% chance of rainfall	5-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Variably cloudy, breezy, showers, isolated thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 34°C-40°C	78-88%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of July (16^th to 31^st) 2025.

 Figure 1.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (16^th to 31^st) July 2025 and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern and North-Eastern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 9.9 mm.

South-Eastern areas:  High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 9.3 mm.

Southern areas: High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.8 mm.

South-Western areas: High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.8 mm.

Central, West-Central, and inland areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.6 mm.

Northern, North-Western areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.3 mm. 

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of  July (16^th to 31^st) 2025.

Figure 2.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (16^th to 31^st) July 2025 and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas: High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.9 mm.

South-Western areas: High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.4 mm.

Trinidad and Tobago:

For the 15-days, there is a high (80%) chance for partly to mostly cloudy conditions with showers. Periods of light to moderate rain are expected with a moderate (60%) chance of heavy showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds favoring farmlands along hillsides of eastern Tobago, eastern and southeastern Trinidad. Near to below normal rainfall is expected 16^th- 21^st then near to above normal towards the end of July. The 15-day period forecast rainfall totals in Trinidad are expected to range between 95 mm over northwestern areas to 175 mm over southeastern Trinidad. In Tobago, 15-day forecast rainfall is expected to range between 70 mm and 125 mm favouring farmlands over southeastern lowland and windward hillsides. There will be a moderate to high (70%) chance of moderately wet to severely wet conditions across most farmlands during the period. An atmospheric pattern more favourable for rainfall is expected late-July/early August to boost rainfall amounts during visits of tropical waves and the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. 

Temperatures & Winds:

There’s a high (70%) chance of warmer than average nighttime temperatures and a moderate (60%) chance of near normal daytime temperatures during the 15-days. There is a low to moderate (40%) chance of a two hot days in a row. Temperatures are expected to feel as hot as 34°C to 40°C when factoring humidity on the warmest days when daily maximum temperatures of 32-33 °C are forecast. Warm nights with minimum temperatures of 23-27°C are expected (especially warm near western Trinidad).

A breezy to windy second week (22^nd - 31^st) is expected with a moderate (60%) chance of fresh to strong winds. Occasional gusts of 50 km/h or higher remain possible near heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms. Evapotranspiration rates in crops of 2.0 mm to 3.0 mm per day are expected mainly due to near-normal daytime temperatures forecast during the period. 

Moisture levels:

Moderate to high moisture levels are expected across Trinidad and Tobago over the fifteen-day period, with average daytime relative humidity values expected from the high-60s to high-80s, in terms of percentage.

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

 During the 15-days, moderately wet to severely wet conditions should continue nationwide. Moderate to heavy rainfall occurring on saturated soils will bring a moderate to high risk of flash flooding, overfilling ponds, land slippage on fields and access roads. 

Heat stress is expected to be low to moderate (30% chance) for farm workers, young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is a moderate (60%) chance that strong gusts will damage young plants and flowering mature plants in exposed hilly areas. There is a moderate (60%) chance for fungal spread, insect pests and warm/moist weather diseases to develop in crop beds.

Continue to monitor streams and nearby watercourse levels. Implement pest and disease control measures as recommended. Monitor crops and animals for signs of heat stress and irrigate crops as needed especially in the flowering stage.

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky July (16^th to 31^st) 2025.

The sun is presently at latitude 21.2 degrees North of the Equator. The day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago on July 16^th will be 12 hours, 40 minutes decreasing to 12 hours, 35 minutes on July 31^st.

Moon Phases: Third Quarter, 17^th; New Moon, 24^th. According to the tradition of moon phases: July 18^th – 19^th and 22^nd – 23^rd are good days for planting below-ground crops; 29^th – 31^st are good days for planting above-ground crops; the remaining days are poor planting days and useful for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.