Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the First Dekad (1st - 10th) of February, 2023



ISSUED AT: 12:37 PM

Date: Wednesday 1st of February 2023

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Summary:

Low rainfall amounts are expected during the fifteen days.

Eight relatively wet days with rainfall amounts less than 5.0 mm are expected on the 4th-7th, 10th, 12th-14th of February, while seven relatively dry days with rainfall amounts less than 1.0 mm are expected on 1st-3rd, 8th-9th, 11th and 15th February 2023.

Trinidad and Tobago:  

Eight relatively wet days with rainfall amounts less than 5.0 mm are expected on the 4th-7th, 10th, 12th-14th of December, while seven relatively dry days with rainfall amounts less than 1.0 mm are expected on the 1st-3rd, 8th-9th, 11th and 15th February 2023. The daily rainfall totals are forecast to range between 0.0 mm to 5.0 mm across different farmlands, with fifteen-day rainfall totals ranging between 25.0 mm and 50.0 mm. The impactful rainfall events will mostly occur across the eastern, parts of Trinidad and south eastern Tobago.

Temperatures & Winds:

The maximum temperatures are expected to remain warm, with temperatures ranging between 30.0oC to 31.5oC throughout the period. However, temperatures are expected to have a real-feel or feels-like between 30.0oC to 33.0oC on most days. The minimum temperatures will range between 19.5oC to 23.0oC during most nights/early mornings, dropping lower in rural areas and valleys.

Mostly weak to moderate north-easterly to easterly winds of an average speed of 20-25 km/h are expected, with gusts of 30-35 km/h at times. Low rainfall totals, low to moderate wind speeds, cool to warm days and warm feels-like temperatures will sustain average evapotranspiration rates in crops ranging between 5.0 to 9.0 millimeters per day.

Moisture levels:

Over the fifteen-day period across Trinidad and Tobago, moisture levels are expected to be moderate to high, with average daytime relative humidity values in the upper-40s to lower-80s, in terms of percentage.

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

During this first 15-day forecast period of (1st to 15th) February 2023, expect similar conditions to occur as compared to the third 15-day (21st to 04th) January/February forecast period. There is a moderate probability (50%) chance for crop irrigation measures to take place owing to the drying out of soils during the forecast period. There is also a low probability (20%) chance for fungi spread, root and/or fruit rot, insect pests and warm weather diseases to develop in crop beds. River levels will remain at low levels during this forecast period.


Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the First Dekad (1st - 10th) of February, 2023



ISSUED AT: 12:37 PM

Date: Wednesday 1st of February 2023


Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:

Term Meaning
Dekad 10 day rainfall measuring period
Rain Day A day with 1.0 mm or more of rainfall amount
Wet Day A day with 10.0 mm or more rainfall amount
Extremely Wet Day A day with 25.0 mm or more of rainfall amount
Normal Rainfall Between 75% and 125% of the average
Below Normal Rainfall Rainfall below 75% of the average
Above Normal Rainfall Rainfall in excess of 125% of the average
Much Below Normal Rainfall Rainfall below 50% of the average
Much Above Normal Rainfall Rainfall above 150% of the average
Scanty Rainfall Less than 1 mm
Moderate Rainfall 1-10 mm
Heavy Rainfall 10-50 mm
Very Heavy Rainfall Greater than 50 mm
Probability of 1-30 % Low Chance
Probability of 30-70 % Moderate Chance
Probability greater than 70 % High Chance
Term Amount of Rain Type of day
Scanty Rainfall Less than 1 mm Relatively dry day
Moderate Rainfall 1-10 mm Relatively wet day
Heavy Rainfall 10-50 mm Wet day
Very Heavy Rainfall Greater than 50 mm Excessively wet day

Weather Bulletin for Farmers and Livestock Producers of Trinidad and Tobago for the 15-day period (1st - 15th) of February 2023.

Date

Weather

Temperature

Heat

Real

Feel

Day Moisture

(Relative) (Humidity)

Wind

1st                  

25% chance of showers

 

Less than 1.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Patchy  cloudiness with a shower

Warm           Max/Min Temperatures  oC       31.0/19.5

 

 

Feels like

31-33oC

 

 

46-74%

Weak north-easterly

15 km/h

Gust

 25 km/h

2nd      

25% chance of showers

 

Less than 1.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Patchy  cloudiness with a shower

Warm           Max/Min Temperatures  oC       31.5/20.0

 

 

Feels like

31-34oC

 

 

46-62%

Moderate north-easterly

20 km/h

Gust

 30 km/h

3rd            

25% chance of showers

 

Less than 1.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Patchy  cloudiness with a shower

Warm           Max/Min Temperatures  oC       31.0/20.0

 

 

Feels like

31-33oC

 

 

57-76%

Moderate north-easterly

20 km/h

Gust

 30 km/h

4th

60% chance of showers

 

Less than 5.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm           Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    31.5/21.0

 

 

Feels like

31.5-33oC

 

 

55-73%

Moderate easterly

20 km/h

Gust

30 km/h

5th

60% chance of showers

 

Less than 5.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm           Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    31.0 /22.0

 

 

Feels like

31-34oC

 

 

59-78%

Moderate easterly

25 km/h

Gust

35 km/h

 

 

6th

55% chance of showers

 

Less than 5.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm           Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    30.0 /22.0

 

 

Feels like

30-33oC

 

 

70-81%

Moderate easterly

20 km/h

Gust

30 km/h

7th

55% chance of showers

 

Less than 3.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm           Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    30.0/22.0

 

 

Feels like

30-33oC

 

 

75-84%

Moderate easterly

20 km/h

Gust

30 km/h

8th

25% chance of showers

 

Less than 1.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Patchy  cloudiness with a shower

Warm           Max/Min Temperatures  oC       30.0/21.0

 

 

Feels like

30-33oC

 

 

56-65%

Moderate easterly

20 km/h

Gust

30 km/h

9th

25% chance of showers

 

Less than 1.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Patchy  cloudiness with a shower

Warm           Max/Min Temperatures  oC       31.0/20.0

 

 

Feels like

31-33oC

 

 

55-68%

Moderate easterly

25 km/h

Gust

35 km/h

10th

55% chance of showers

 

Less than 5.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm           Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    30.0/22.0

 

 

Feels like

30-33oC

 

 

63-78%

Moderate easterly

25 km/h

Gust

35 km/h

11th            

25% chance of showers

 

Less than 1.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Patchy  cloudiness with a shower

Warm           Max/Min Temperatures  oC       30.0/22.0

 

 

Feels like

30-34oC

 

 

46-62%

Moderate easterly

25 km/h

Gust

35 km/h

12th     

 

               

55% chance of showers

 

Less than 5.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm           Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    31.5/21.0

 

 

Feels like

31.5-33oC

 

 

76-82%

Moderate easterly

20 km/h

Gust

30 km/h

13th  

           

55% chance of showers

 

Less than 5.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm           Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    30.0/22.0

 

 

Feels like

30-33oC

 

 

76-87%

Moderate easterly

25 km/h

Gust

35 km/h

14th      

55% chance of showers

 

Less than 5.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm           Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    30.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

31.5-33oC

 

 

77-87%

Moderate easterly

20 km/h

Gust

30 km/h

15th      

25% chance of showers

 

Less than 1.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Patchy  cloudiness with a shower

Warm           Max/Min Temperatures  oC       30.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

30-33oC

 

 

66-81%

Moderate easterly

20 km/h

Gust

30 km/h

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of February (1st – 15th) 2023.

Figure 1.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (1st - 15th) February 2023 and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern, and North-Eastern areas 

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.5 mm.

South-Eastern areas

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.0 mm.

Southern areas

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.3 mm.

South-Western areas 

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.6 mm.

Central, West-Central, and inland areas

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.5 mm.

Northern, North-Western areas     

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.5 mm.

 

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of February (1st – 15th) 2023.

Figure 2.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (1st - 15th) February 2023 and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.5 mm.

South-Western areas

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.5 mm.

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky February (1st – 15th) 2023.

The sun is presently at 17.0 degrees South latitude and with this position, the day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from February 1st will be 11 hours and 41 minutes, rising slightly to 11 hours and 48 minutes by 15th February 2023. According to the moon’s phases, the 1st-3rd and 15th of February are good days for planting aboveground crops, while 9th-12th and 15th are good days to plant below ground crops. However 4th, 5th (Full Moon Phase), 7th-8th and 13th (Third Quarter Phase)-14th are poor planting days. These days should be used for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.

 

Weather Assessment for the period December (21st – 31st) 2023.

Two wet days occurred on the 21st and 31st of January over Trinidad and Tobago. Crop growth and development rates may have increased due to available moisture and many sunny days.

Temperatures:

Temperatures were cool to warm during the period 21st-31st of January, with the minimum nighttime temperature falling to 18.3 ⁰C and the maximum daytime temperature rising to 31.4 ⁰C, in Trinidad.

Similarly, temperatures in Tobago were cool to warm during the period 21st-31st of January, with the minimum nighttime temperature falling to 20.3 ⁰C and the maximum daytime temperature rising to 30.3 ⁰C.