Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Second Dekad (11th - 20th) of April, 2021
ISSUED AT: 10:01 AM
Date: Saturday 10th of April 2021
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Summary:
Ample Rainfall amounts are expected on four of the ten days. Rainfall amounts ranging between 1.0 mm to 7.0 mm, are expected on the 11th and 12th, with higher amounts on days 19th and 20th, particularly in eastern parts of Trinidad and along the coast. A drying trend is expected to develop, persist and strengthen over the period 14th through the 17th, where both islands will experience hot, dry weather with long sunny spells, followed by more favorable weather for agriculture on the 18th, 19th and 20th . Farmers are encourage to harvest water when feasible to mitigate against the harsh dry days. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain warm (29.5oC) to very warm (31.8oC) throughout most of the period, but are likely to become hot (32.0oC to 32.6oC) on the 14th and 17th. However, temperatures are expected to have a real-feel or feels-like between 33.0oC to 40.0oC on most days, even with moderate winds. Low rainfall totals, high temperatures, high feels-like values, low daytime humidity values, and mostly moderate winds will increase evapo-transpiration rates in crops and increase drying and heat stress. This will increase the need to irrigate crops and provide fresh water to livestock. Trinidad: Partly cloudy spells on the 11th, 12th, 19th and 20th will likely bring light to occasionally moderate rainfall across farmlands in the southeast, eastern and northeast areas of Trinidad. Where rainfall totals are forecasted to be between 1.0 mm and 7.0 mm across different farmlands. The heaviest and most persistent rains are expected over farmland in the northeast near Sangre Grande, Biche, Fishing pond, Plum Mitan and Vega De Oropouche, and near Mora Valley and Moruga in southeast. Otherwise, mostly hot and sunny, at times partly cloudy but generally fine and dry with plenty of warm sunshine will dominate the other days. Ten days rainfall totals are expected to range between 35.0 mm and 75.0 mm. On the hand, from the 14th to 17th a drying trend will develop but will be interrupted now and then by cloudy patches at times. Tobago: Farmers should expect two days of light to moderate rainfall amounts on the 11th and 12th followed by largely dry conditions with mostly sunny spells, fine and warm weather in Tobago. Ten-day rainfall totals are expected to reach 35.0 mm in the island southwest and 25.0 mm in the northeast. Following the 12th, dryness will increase throughout the rest of the period, as a drying trend is set to take hold across the island during the rest of the 10 days. Temperatures & Winds: Daytime temperatures are expected to remain warm to very warm throughout the period, except on the 11th and 12th, when maximum temperatures are likely to dip to 30.0⁰C. Farmers should expect an increase in heat from the 13th as maximum temperatures are expected to climb close to 32.6 oC. The real-feel or feels-like temperatures are expected to range between 33.0oC and 37.0oC on most days, but with very good chances for the real-feel or feels-like temperatures between 38.0 oC to 40.0oC during 14th to 17th . Over the four days period (14th – 18th) moisture levels are expected to be low with average daytime relative humidity values in 40s to 50s, in terms of percentage. While during the 11th, 12th, 19th and 20th average daytime relative humidity values in the 60s to 80s, in terms of percentage Wind speeds are expected to be light to moderate with speeds between 10 km/h and 22 km/h and gusts up to 30 km/h at times.
Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Second Dekad (11th - 20th) of April, 2021
ISSUED AT: 10:01 AM
Date: Saturday 10th of April 2021
Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:
| Term | Meaning | |
|---|---|---|
| Dekad | 10 day rainfall measuring period | |
| Rain Day | A day with 1.0 mm or more of rainfall amount | |
| Wet Day | A day with 10.0 mm or more rainfall amount | |
| Extremely Wet Day | A day with 25.0 mm or more of rainfall amount | |
| Normal Rainfall | Between 75% and 125% of the average | |
| Below Normal Rainfall | Rainfall below 75% of the average | |
| Above Normal Rainfall | Rainfall in excess of 125% of the average | |
| Much Below Normal Rainfall | Rainfall below 50% of the average | |
| Much Above Normal Rainfall | Rainfall above 150% of the average | |
| Scanty Rainfall | Less than 1 mm | |
| Moderate Rainfall | 1-10 mm | |
| Heavy Rainfall | 10-50 mm | |
| Very Heavy Rainfall | Greater than 50 mm | |
| Probability of 1-30 % | Low Chance | |
| Probability of 30-70 % | Moderate Chance | |
| Probability greater than 70 % | High Chance | |
| Term | Amount of Rain | Type of day |
| Scanty Rainfall | Less than 1 mm | Relatively dry day |
| Moderate Rainfall | 1-10 mm | Relatively wet day |
| Heavy Rainfall | 10-50 mm | Wet day |
| Very Heavy Rainfall | Greater than 50 mm | Excessively wet day |
Weather Assessment for the period April (1st -9th) 2021.
During the first 9 days of April 2021, very little rain fell to support farming processes. In Trinidad day one (1st) and day seventh (7th) in Tobago, were the only days that had useful rainfall which assisted agriculture. Followed by 8 consecutive dry days in Trinidad. The rainfall totals for the period 1st to 9th April located below as figure 1. While Tobago received, moderate rainfall amounts only on the seventh, continued drying trend occured. Tobago’s rainfall totals map for the period 1st to 9th of April located below as figure 2.
Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 1st to 9th of April 2021.
Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 1st to 9th of March 2021.
10-day Weather Forecast for Farming, April (11th – 20th) 2021
|
Weather |
Temperature |
Heat Real Feel |
Day Moisture (Relative) (Humidity) |
Wind |
|||
|
11th |
65% chance of light to moderate showers
|
1.0 to 7.0 mm rainfall possible |
Partly cloudy with moderate showers |
Warm Max Temp 30.0oC |
Feels like 33-35oC |
65-80% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 14 km/h |
|
12th |
65% chance of light to moderate showers
|
1.0 to 7.0 mm rainfall possible |
Partly cloudy with moderate showers |
Warm |
Feels like 34-35oC |
67-76% |
moderate easterly 20 km/h Gust 28 km/h |
|
13th |
60% chance isolated showers
|
0.0 to 5.0 mm rainfall possible |
Partly cloudy few showers |
Warm
|
Feels like 34-39oC |
50-62% |
14 km/h Gust 24 km/h |
|
14th |
Sunny |
|
Few cloudy patches |
Hot |
Feels like 35-40oC |
40-50% |
20 km/h Gust 32 km/h |
|
15th |
Sunny |
|
Few cloudy patches |
Hot Max Temp 32.4oC |
Feels like 35-40oC |
40-50% |
Moderate south-easterly 20 km/h Gust 32 km/h |
|
16th |
Sunny |
|
Few cloudy patches |
Hot
Max Temp 32.6oC |
Feels like 35-40oC |
40-55% |
Moderate south-easterly 20 km/h Gust 24 km/h |
|
17th |
Sunny |
|
Few cloudy patches |
Hot Max Temp 32.6oC |
Feels like 38-42oC |
40-48% |
Moderate easterly 16 km/h Gust 26 km/h |
|
18th |
45% chance showers
|
|
Mainly sunny with occasional light showers |
Very Warm Max Temp 31.8oC |
Feels like 35-38oC |
52-62% |
Moderate easterly at 20 km/h Gust 28 km/h |
|
19th |
65% chance moderate showers
|
0.0 to 7.0 mm rainfall with higher amounts in the east coast of Trinidad |
Partly cloudy with moderate showers |
Very Warm Max Temp 31.8oC |
Feels like
35-38oC |
55-65% |
at 20 km/h Gust 30 km/h |
|
20th |
65% chance moderate showers
|
0.0 to 7.0 mm rainfall with higher amounts in the east coast of Trinidad |
Partly cloudy with moderate showers |
Very Warm Max Temp 31.8oC |
Feels like
35-38oC |
50-60% |
at 20 km/h Gust 28 km/h |
Max Temp 30.5oC
Max Temp 31.8oC
moderate south-easterly
Max Temp 32.4oC
Moderate south-easterly
Moderate easterly
Moderate easterly
Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky April 11th to 20th 2021
The sun is presently at the latitude 7.8 degrees North latitude and with this position, the day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from April 11th to April 20th will be between 12hours 12 minutes and 12 hours 18 minutes.
The new moon phase will be on the 11th, which is a poor planting or cultivating day, while days 12th to 14th are good planting days. On the other hand, 15th and 16th will be poor days for planting, however 17th to 19th are good days for planting above ground crops.
Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the Second 10 Days of April (11th– 20th) 2021
Figure 1. Rainfall Map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the second ten (10) days of April 2021 and percentage probability of occurrence.
Eastern and North-Eastern areas
Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.6 mm.
South-Eastern areas
High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.5 mm.
Southern areas
High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.1 mm.
South-Western areas
High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.0 mm.
Northern, North-Western areas
Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.5 mm.
Central, West-Central and inland areas
Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.5 mm.
Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the Second 10 Days of April (11th – 20th) 2021
Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the second ten (10) days of April 2021 and percentage probability of occurrence
North-Eastern areas
Moderate chance (60%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.5 mm.
South-Western areas
Moderate chance (65 %) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.0 mm.
Highlighted Possible Impact
Farmlands in Trinidad and Tobago have received small to sufficient amounts of rainfall during the last 10 days, particularly on 10th April. Wet days during the first two days and last two days of this dekad will continue to benefit farming in areas across Trinidad and Tobago. However, the somewhat lengthy sunny spells and moderate winds from the 14th will increase evaporation and evapotranspiration rates significantly; and will also increase drying and heat stress possibilities, especially so in young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedling. Continuing of mostly dry conditions in Tobago will add to existing moderate drying over the island, leading to increased dryness and need for frequent irrigation of crops. Farmers are encouraged to harvest the available rainfall during the period as a dry trend is forecast to take hold from the 14th towards the 17th.
With warm and hot temperatures at this time and occasional moist vegetation, there are increased chances for fungi spread, insect pests and warm weather diseases to develop in crop beds. Given the forecast conditions, farmers should aim to keep moisture in crop root areas for a longer time after rainy periods and wetting, by covering crops root areas with grass (mulching).