ISSUED AT: 10:59 PM

Date: Tuesday 31st of December 2024

Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:

Weather Assessment for the period December 16^th to 31^st 2024.

The second half of December was wetter and warmer than the first half. Tobago experienced above-normal rainfall due to three (3) wet days including two (2) extremely wet days that resulted in the 15-day rainfall amount at Crown Point of 136.6 mm. Meanwhile Trinidad experienced less rainfall than usual despite heavy showers. Two (2) extremely wet days at Piarco resulted in a 15-day rainfall amount of 66.7 mm. The rainfall totals maps for the period 16^th to 31^st of December for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 16^th to 31^st of December.

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period  16^th to 31^st of December.

 Temperatures:

Warm to very warm conditions dominated the second half of December. From the 16^th to the 31^st December Piarco observed a maximum daytime temperature of 32.3 ⁰C (28^th) with no hot days (maximum temperatures over 34.0 ⁰C at Piarco). The minimum night-time temperatures ranged from 21.3 ⁰C to 24.7 ⁰C at Piarco. Tobago also experienced very warm conditions with a maximum daytime temperature of 31.4 ⁰C (16^th) with no hot days (maximum temperatures above 33.0 ⁰C at Crown Point). The minimum night-time temperatures ranged from 23.2 ⁰C to 26.6 ⁰C at Crown Point. Factoring the relative humidity however, these temperatures had a ‘real feel’ that was higher than the observed temperature.

Agro-meteorological Forecast:

Date	Weather			Temperature	Heat ‘Real Feel’	Day Moisture (Relative Humidity)	Wind
1st	80% chance of showers	10-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Cloudy, breezy, showers /rain, isolated heavy showers/ thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min  Temperature  29.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 33-37℃	80 - 90%	Easterly 20 - 30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
2nd	80% chance of showers	10-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Cloudy, breezy, showers /rain, isolated heavy showers/ thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  29.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 33-37℃	80 - 90%	Easterly 20 - 30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
3rd	80% chance of showers	9-12 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, showers, isolated heavy shower/ thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  29.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 33-37℃	80 - 90%	Easterly 20 - 30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
4th	70% chance of showers	4-9 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, hazy, breezy, showers	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  30.0 ℃ /22.0 ℃	Feels like 34-37 ℃	65 - 80%	Easterly 20 - 30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
5th	70% chance of showers	4-9 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, hazy, breezy, showers	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  30.0 ℃ /22.0 ℃	Feels like 34-37 ℃	65 - 80%	Easterly 20 - 30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
6th	40% chance of showers	3-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /21.0 ℃	Feels like 34-40 ℃	55 - 80%	Easterly 20 - 30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
7th	40% chance of showers	3-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated shower	Very Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  32.0 ℃ /21.0 ℃	Feels like 33-40℃	55 - 70%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
8th	20% chance of showers	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated shower	Very Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  32.0 ℃ /21.0 ℃	Feels like 33-40℃	55 - 70%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
9th	20% chance of showers	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /22.0 ℃	Feels like 33-39℃	65 - 75%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
10th	20% chance of showers	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /22.0 ℃	Feels like 33-39℃	60 - 75%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
11th	40% chance of showers	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /22.0 ℃	Feels like 33-38℃	52 - 70%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
12th	40% chance of showers	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /21.0 ℃	Feels like 33-38℃	52 - 70%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
13th	40% chance of showers	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /23.0 ℃	Feels like 33-39℃	55 - 75%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
14th	40% chance of showers	3-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /22.0 ℃	Feels like 33-39℃	55 - 75%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
15th	40% chance of showers	3-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, isolated shower	Warm Max/Min  Temperatures  31.0 ℃ /22.0 ℃	Feels like 33-39℃	55 - 75%	Easterly 20 - 39 km/h Gust 50 km/h

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of January (1^st – 15^th ) 2025.

Figure 1.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (1^st – 15^th) January 2025 and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern and North-Eastern areas: High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.6 mm.

South-Eastern areas:  Moderate chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.6 mm.

 Southern areas: Moderate chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.0 mm.

 South-Western areas: Moderate chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.9 mm.

 Central, West-Central, and inland areas: Moderate chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.0 mm.

 Northern, North-Western areas: Moderate chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.6 mm.

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of January (1^st – 15^th ) 2025.

Figure 2.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (1^st – 15^th) January 2025 and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas: High chance (80%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.6 mm.

South-Western areas: Moderate chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.5 mm.

Trinidad and Tobago:

The 15-day outlook calls for normal to above normal rainfall amounts due to a moderate (57%) chance of La Niña emerging early January.  Wet days with the daily rainfall totals forecast up to 18 mm are expected  1^st – 3^rd January 2025, and relatively wet days with moderate rainfall of 1 – 10 mm are expected for the remainder of the period.  Isolated heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms during wet days may result in flash flooding, ponding, gusty winds and maintain saturated soils. 

In Trinidad, the 15-day period forecast rainfall totals are expected to range between 55 mm and 100 mm across different farmlands favouring eastern and northeastern areas of Trinidad: Toco, Valencia, Sangre Grande, Plum Matin, Rio Claro and Mayaro. In Tobago, 15-day forecast rainfall is likely to range between 60 mm and 100 mm across most farmlands, favouring northern and eastern areas: Charlotteville, Belle Garden, Hillsborough and Main Ridge.

Temperatures & Winds:

Warm to very warm conditions continue 1^st to 15^th January with a high (80%) chance daytime and nighttime temperatures will be above normal. Forecast daily maximum temperatures will range from 29 °C to 32 °C. Factoring humidity on the hottest days, these temperatures are expected to feel as hot as 33 °C to 39 °C on most days. The minimum temperatures will range from 21.0 °C to 23.0 °C during most nights/early mornings, though lower (19 °C) in hilly areas and sheltered valleys.

Breezy conditions continue with a high (80%) chance of moderate to fresh northeasterly to easterly winds of 20–39 km/h. Strong gusts are possible near heavy showers/thunderstorms.  Warmer than usual and breezy conditions will sustain average evapotranspiration rates in crops between 3.0 to 8.0 mm per day.

Moisture levels:

Over the fifteen-day period across Trinidad and Tobago, expect moderate moisture levels with average daytime relative humidity values mainly from the mid-50s to upper-80s, in terms of percentage.

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

Spells of mainly light to moderate showers with occasional heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will interrupt breezy and warm conditions. Saturated soils and lush vegetation will persist for the period as soil moisture loss lessens due to less evaporative stress. However scheduling of irrigation days on fields to maintain optimal soil moisture will likely remain necessary on warm, breezy days. Opportunities for water harvesting exist. There is a moderate (60%) chance of heat stress in young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is a high probability (80%) that strong winds may cause physical damage to young plants and flowering mature plants in exposed hilly areas. There is a moderate probability (50%) chance for fungal spread, insect pests and warm/moist weather diseases to develop in crop beds. 

 Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky January (1^st – 15^th ) 2025.

The sun is presently 23° (degrees) South of the Equator and the day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago on January 1^st will be 11 hours, 31 minutes and 5 seconds increasing to 11 hours, 34 minutes 21 seconds on January 15^th.

Moon Phases: First Quarter, 6^th ; Full Moon, 13^th. According to the tradition of moon’s phases: January 3^rd – 4^th , 7^th – 8^th ,  11^th – 12^th are good days for planting above-ground crops; 13^th is a good day for planting below-ground; the remaining days are poor planting days and are useful for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.