Weather Assessment for the period 16^th to 30^th  April, 2025.

Local and regional rainfall climatic systems mainly influenced rainfall amounts following the end of La Niña conditions in March (ENSO Monitor Update). In Tobago, despite scanty rainfall ( below 1 mm) during the 15 days, Crown Point reached its average for April. In Trinidad, two wet days (22^nd, 23^rd) contributed to the 15-day rainfall total of 44 mm at Piarco, which brought total rainfall to 120% of the April average.  

The rainfall totals maps for the period 16^th to 30^th of April for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 16^th to 30^th of April.

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 16^th to 30^th of April.
 

Temperatures:

During the second 15-days of April, warm conditions would have accelerated crop development but also increased the risk of moderate heat stress in wind-sheltered areas.  Warm to very warm nights dominated the period with one hot day 34.1 ⁰C(21^st) observed at Piarco (maximum temperature over 34.0 ⁰C), The minimum night-time temperatures ranged from 22.2 ⁰C to 25.8 ⁰C at Piarco. Tobago experienced very warm night-time conditions but no hot days (maximum temperatures above 33.0 ⁰C at Crown Point). The maximum daytime temperature was 32.1 ⁰C (26^th) and the minimum night-time temperatures ranged from 23.5 ⁰C to 27.1 ⁰C at Crown Point. Factoring the relative humidity however these temperatures had a ‘real feel’ that was higher than the observed maximum temperature.

Agro-meteorological Forecast:

Date	Weather			Temperature	Heat Index ‘Feels Like’	Day Moisture (Relative Humidity)	Wind
1	40% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 37°C-43°C	51-70%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
2	70% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, hazy	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 35°C-40°C	54-70%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
3	70% chance of rainfall	3-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Mostly cloudy to cloudy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 36°C-43°C	65-87%	East-southeast 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
4	70% chance of rainfall	3-12 mm of rainfall is possible	Mostly cloudy to cloudy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 36°C-43°C	65-87%	East-southeast 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
5	70% chance of rainfall	3-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Mostly cloudy to cloudy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/23°C	Feels like 35°C-39°C	60-75%	East-southeast 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
6	70% chance of rainfall	2-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 37°C-42°C	61-75%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
7	60% chance of rainfall	2-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 37°C-42°C	61-75%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
8	60% chance of rainfall	3-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 39°C-44°C	65-80%	East-southeast 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
9	60% chance of rainfall	3-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 40°C-44°C	70-80%	East-southeast 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
10	40% chance of rainfall	1-4 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/25°C	Feels like 41°C-48°C	65-80%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
11	40% chance of rainfall	1-4 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/25°C	Feels like 38°C-46°C	55-75%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
12	70% chance of rainfall	1-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 36°C-40°C	55-70%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
13	70% chance of rainfall	1-6 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 36°C-40°C	55-70%	East-northeast 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
14	70% chance of rainfall	1-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 36°C-42°C	55-75%	East 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
15	70% chance of rainfall	1-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 36°C-42°C	55-75%	East-southeast 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of May (1^st to 15^th) 2025.

Figure 1.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (1^st to 15^th) May 2025 and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern and North-Eastern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.6 mm.

South-Eastern areas:  Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.3 mm.

Southern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.5 mm.

South-Western areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.5 mm.

Central, West-Central, and inland areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 4.2 mm.

 Northern, North-Western areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.9 mm. 

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of May (1^st to 15^th) 2025.

Figure 2.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (1^st to 15^th) May 2025 and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.0 mm.

South-Western areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.7 mm.

Trinidad and Tobago:

During the 15-days, the passage of low-pressure systems near the Leeward islands will generally result in less breezy conditions over Trinidad and Tobago. Lower wind speeds combined with equatorial moisture moving over the Guianas into Trinidad and Tobago will increase cloudiness and possibly rainfall.  Light to moderate showers are expected nationwide with a low to moderate chance (40%) of heavy showers or thunderstorms favoring areas of southern, eastern Trinidad and southeast Tobago, which may result in flooding of access roads and ponding in low-lying fields. 

The 15-day period forecast rainfall totals in Trinidad are expected to range between 30 mm and 110 mm across most farmlands, though isolated higher amounts of 120mm are possible for southern Trinidad. In Tobago, 15-day forecast rainfall is expected to range between 27 mm and 65 mm favoring southern Tobago such as Lowlands and Patience Hill.

Temperatures & Winds:

There is a moderate (70%) chance of warmer than average daytime and nighttime temperatures nationwide as the heat season continues. During the 15-days there is a moderate (55%) chance of a 2-day hot spell, favouring western Trinidad. Forecast daily maximum temperatures will range from 30-32 °C in Tobago and 30-33 °C in Trinidad. So when factoring humidity on the warmest days, temperatures are expected to feel as hot as 35-48°C. Minimum temperatures of 24-25°C are expected during most nights/early mornings, though warmer near western areas and coastlines.

Less breezy conditions are expected with mainly moderate easterly winds. However wind speeds up to 50 km/h with higher gusts are possible near heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms. Combined with above normal temperatures, evapotranspiration rates in crops of 3.0 mm to 7.0 mm per day are expected.

Moisture levels:

Moderate moisture levels are expected across Trinidad and Tobago over the fifteen-day period, with average daytime relative humidity values mainly ranging from the low-60s to high-70s, in terms of percentage.

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

Partly to mostly cloudy, hazy and breezy conditions will be interrupted by showers, periods of rain, with a low to moderate chance (40%) of heavy showers or thunderstorms. Moderate concerns for dryness however exist across farmlands in western and northwestern areas of Trinidad: such as Couva, Carenage and Diego Martin. Farmers should maintain scheduling of irrigation days on fields to maintain optimal soil moisture where necessary. A moderate (70%) chance of heat stress exists for farm workers, young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is a risk (60% chance) that strong gusts may damage young plants and flowering mature plants in exposed hilly areas. There is a low (30%) chance for fungal spread, insect pests and warm/moist weather diseases to develop in crop beds.

Continue to monitor crops and animals for signs of heat stress, soil moisture closely and irrigate as needed, especially for crops in the flowering stage. Implement pest and disease control measures as recommended. Consider applying mulch to conserve soil moisture.

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky May (1^st to 15^th) 2025.

The sun is presently overhead at latitude 15.3 degrees North of the Equator. The day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago on May 1^st will be 12 hours, 30 minutes increasing to 12 hours, 36 minutes on May 15^th.

Moon Phases: First Quarter, 4^th; Full Moon, 12^th. According to the tradition of moon phases: May 1^st  – 2^nd , 8^th – 12^th are good days for planting above-ground crops; 12^th and 15^th are good days for planting below-ground crops; the remaining days are poor planting days and useful for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.