Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the First Dekad (1st - 10th) of June, 2020



ISSUED AT: 07:42 PM

Date: Monday 1st of June 2020

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Summary:

During the first dekad of June 2020, relatively wet days are expected on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 9th and 10th, while wet days are expected on the 5th, 6th and 7th. On relatively wet days expect intermittent cloudy patches with a moderate probability (55%) of brief showers and on wet days expect cloudy periods with a moderate probability (70%) of light to moderate showers.


Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the First Dekad (1st - 10th) of June, 2020



ISSUED AT: 07:42 PM

Date: Monday 1st of June 2020


Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:

Term Meaning
Dekad 10 day rainfall measuring period
Rain Day A day with 1.0 mm or more of rainfall amount
Wet Day A day with 10.0 mm or more rainfall amount
Extremely Wet Day A day with 25.0 mm or more of rainfall amount
Normal Rainfall Between 75% and 125% of the average
Below Normal Rainfall Rainfall below 75% of the average
Above Normal Rainfall Rainfall in excess of 125% of the average
Much Below Normal Rainfall Rainfall below 50% of the average
Much Above Normal Rainfall Rainfall above 150% of the average
Scanty Rainfall Less than 1 mm
Moderate Rainfall 1-10 mm
Heavy Rainfall 10-50 mm
Very Heavy Rainfall Greater than 50 mm
Probability of 1-30 % Low Chance
Probability of 30-70 % Moderate Chance
Probability greater than 70 % High Chance
Term Amount of Rain Type of day
Scanty Rainfall Less than 1 mm Relatively dry day
Moderate Rainfall 1-10 mm Relatively wet day
Heavy Rainfall 10-50 mm Wet day
Very Heavy Rainfall Greater than 50 mm Excessively wet day

Weather Assessment for the period (21st–30th) of May 2020.

During the 21st to 30th of May, a mixture of relatively dry days, relatively wet days and wet days occurred over Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall total maps for the period 21st to 30th of May are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 21st to 30th of May 2020.

 

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 21st to 30th of May 2020.

 

 

The observed temperatures (maximum/minimum), average relative humidity (maximum/minimum) and long-term 10-day (10dys) averages for Piarco International Airport and ANR Robinson International Airport.

 

Location

Maximum Temperature

0C/ Long term 10 dys average 0C

Minimum Temperature

0C /Long term 10 dys average 0

Average maximum Relative humidity

(%)/ Long term 10 dys average (%) 

Average minimum Relative humidity

(%)/Long term 10 dys average  (%) 

Trinidad (Piarco International airport)

34.4/32.2

(1981-2010)

23.5/24.2

(1981-2010)

78/93

(1990-2010)

67/66

(1990-2010)

 

Tobago (ANR Robinson International airport)

32.9/31.3

(1981-2010)

24.2/25.0

(1981-2010)

80/93

(1990-2010)

71/62

(1990-2010)

 

Table 1 shows the expected weather conditions during the First Dekad (1st–10th) of June 2020, for Trinidad and Tobago.

Table 1.

Days:

Expected weather:

1st  

Intermittent cloudy patches with a moderate probability (55%) of brief showers.

2nd     

Intermittent cloudy patches with a moderate probability (55%) of brief showers.

3rd

Intermittent cloudy patches with a moderate probability (55%) of brief showers.

4th

Intermittent cloudy patches with a moderate probability (55%) of brief showers.

5th

Cloudy periods with a moderate probability (70%) of light to moderate showers.

6th

Cloudy periods with a moderate probability (70%) of light to moderate showers.

7th

Cloudy periods with a moderate probability (70%) of light to moderate showers.

8th 

Intermittent cloudy patches with a moderate probability (55%) of brief showers.

9th

Intermittent cloudy patches with a moderate probability (55%) of brief showers.

10th

Intermittent cloudy patches with a moderate probability (55%) of brief showers.

 

Table 2 shows the expected temperatures, humidity and dust haze days during the First dekad of June for Piarco, Trinidad.

Table 2.

Day

Maximum Temperature

0C

Minimum Temperature

0C

Average Relative humidity (%)

Dust Haze

Yes/No

1st      

33.5

24.5

70

Yes

2nd

33.5

24.5

65

Yes

3rd

33.7

23.0

65

Yes

4th

33.7

23.0

70

Yes

5th

32.0

24.0

90

No

6th

32.0

24.0

90

No

7th

32.5

24.0

90

No

8th  

33.0

23.5

75

Yes

9th

33.7

23.5

65

Yes

10th

33.7

23.5

65

Yes

 

 

Table 3 shows the expected temperatures, humidity and dust haze days during the First dekad of June for the ANR Robinson, Tobago.

Table 3

Day

Maximum Temperature

0C

Minimum Temperature

0C

Average Relative humidity (%)

Dust Haze

Yes/No

1st     

32.5

25.0

70

Yes

2nd

32.5

25.0

65

Yes

3rd

32.5

24.0

65

Yes

4th

32.5

24.0

65

Yes

5th

31.8

25.0

90

No

6th

31.8

25.0

90

No

7th

31.8

25.0

90

No

8th  

32.0

24.2

75

Yes

9th

32.8

24.0

70

Yes

10th

33.0

24.0

70

Yes

 

Trinidad’s Mean Daily Rainfall Forecast for the First Dekad of June (1st-10th) 2020.

Northern & Northwestern areas:

Moderate chance (60%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.5 mm.

North-Eastern and Eastern areas:

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.6 mm.

Central, West-Central and inland areas:

Moderate chance (60%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.0 mm.

South-Eastern areas:

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.9 mm.

Southern areas:

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.4 mm.

South-Western areas:

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.7 mm.

 

Figure 3. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing possible rainfall totals for varying districts during first dekad of June 2020 and percentage probability of occurrence.

 

 

Tobago’s Mean Daily Rainfall Forecast for the First Dekad of June (1st-10th) 2020.

Northeastern areas:

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.7 mm.

South-Western areas:

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 3.4 mm.

Figure 4. Rainfall map of Tobago showing possible rainfall totals for varying districts during first dekad of June 2020 and percentage probability of occurrence.

 

Impacts on Agriculture:

During the first dekad of June 2020, relatively wet days are expected on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 9th and 10th, while wet days are expected on the 5th, 6th and 7th. There is a high (75%) probability that the anticipated rainfall will return significant soil moisture across Trinidad and Tobago. Rivers levels are likely to- increase as the rainy season progresses, while shrubs and grass-growth will continue at a faster pace. Additionally, with rising mean temperatures, there is a high (75%) probability for insects, pests and warm weather diseases to develop.

Sun and Moon positions in the sky:

The sun is presently at a latitude of approximately 22.0 degrees North -, and with this position, the day length for this dekad will be 12.6 hours. As Trinidad and Tobago is in the heat season, there is a high probability (80%) of intense solar radiation occurring during the first dekad of June 2020, when the sky is generally cloud free. There is also high probability (85%) of heat stress on a variety of plant seedlings and young/sick/elderly animals from direct exposure to solar radiation and high temperatures. Additionally, the full moon phase will be on the 5th June 2020. As a result, there will be medium to high moon illumination over crop fields and livestock at night during the dekad.

Summary:

 

During the first dekad of June 2020, relatively wet days are expected on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 9th and 10th, while wet days are expected on the 5th, 6th and 7th. On relatively wet days expect intermittent cloudy patches with a moderate probability (55%) of brief showers and on wet days expect cloudy periods with a moderate probability (70%) of light to moderate showers.