Summary of Expected conditions: 

From August 1^st to 15^th, near to below normal rainfall is expected. However wet days are forecast 1^st to 4^th, 7^th to 9^th and 12^th to 13^th  across various farmlands, with heavier bouts of rainfall likely to cause street/flash flooding on low-lying fields and access roads. These wet conditions will maintain a moderate to high risk of pests and disease, while slightly warmer conditions are also expected to raise the risk of heat hazards from low to moderate.

Weather Assessment for the period 16^th to 31^st July, 2025.

During the second 15-day period, near to below normal rainfall occurred across various farmlands. At Piarco, two extremely wet days (17^th, 23^rd ) and three wet days contributed to near normal rainfall totaling 117.5 mm. At Crown Point, one extremely wet day (19^th ) and two wet days contributed to a 15-day rainfall total of 99.8 mm at Crown Point. The rainfall totals maps for the period 16^th to 31^st of July for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 16^th to 31^st of July.

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 16^th to 31^st of July.
 

Temperatures:

For the second half of July the nights have remained warmer than normal however days have been as warm as usual. Piarco observed no hot days (maximum temperature over 34.0 ⁰C) with a maximum daytime temperature 33.2 ⁰C (29^th) however, the night-time minimum temperatures ranged from 22.1 ⁰C to 25.1 ⁰C at Piarco. Tobago did not observe any hot days (maximum temperatures above 33.0 ⁰C at Crown Point) however warm nights mainly occurred. The maximum daytime temperature was 31.8 ⁰C (25^th) and the minimum temperatures ranged from 23.7 ⁰C to 27.4 ⁰C at Crown Point. Factoring the relative humidity however these temperatures had a ‘real feel’ that was higher than the observed maximum temperature.

Agro-meteorological Forecast:

Date	Weather			Temperature	Heat Index ‘Feels Like’	Day Moisture (Relative Humidity)	Wind
1	40% chance of rainfall	5-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, showers, isolated thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/24°C	Feels like 35°C-36°C	58-76%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
2	80% chance of rainfall	6-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Mostly cloudy/cloudy, gusty, showery, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 31°C/24°C	Feels like 36°C-36°C	66-77%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
3	80% chance of rainfall	6-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Mostly cloudy/cloudy, gusty, showery, heavy shower/thunderstorms	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 38°C-39°C	66-80%	East 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
4	70% chance of rainfall	5-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Mostly cloudy, gusty, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 38°C-39°C	67-79%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
5	40% chance of rainfall	5-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, few/ scattered showers	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 38°C-41°C	63-74%	East-northeast 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
6	40% chance of rainfall	5-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, few/ scattered showers	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 37°C-39°C	58-76%	East-northeast 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
7	40% chance of rainfall	5-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, few/ scattered showers	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 38°C-44°C	71-79%	East-northeast 20-39 km/h Gust 50 km/h
8	70% chance of rainfall	5-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, gusty, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 37°C-38°C	63-77%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
9	70% chance of rainfall	5-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, gusty, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 37°C-39°C	65-77%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
10	70% chance of rainfall	5-10 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, scattered showers	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 37°C-41°C	63-75%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
11	70% chance of rainfall	5-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, scattered showers	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 37°C-46°C	76-86%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
12	70% chance of rainfall	6-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, gusty, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/23°C	Feels like 37°C-46°C	76-86%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
13	70% chance of rainfall	6-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, gusty, isolated heavy shower/thunderstorm	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/23°C	Feels like 38°C-43°C	70-80%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
14	70% chance of rainfall	5-15 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, scattered showers	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 38°C-42°C	66-76%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
15	70% chance of rainfall	5-8 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, scattered showers	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/24°C	Feels like 38°C-42°C	66-76%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of August (1^st to 15^th) 2025.

 Figure 3.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (1^st to 15^th) August 2025 and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern and North-Eastern areas: High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 10.4 mm.

South-Eastern areas:  High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 9.1 mm.

Southern areas: High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.6 mm.

South-Western areas: High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.5 mm.

Central, West-Central, and inland areas: Moderate chance (60%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.2 mm.

Northern, North-Western areas: Moderate chance (60%) of mean daily rainfall up to 8.9 mm. 

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of August (1^st to 15^th) 2025..

Figure 4.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (1^st to 15^th) August 2025 and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas: High chance (70%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.4 mm.

South-Western areas: Moderate chance (60%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.8 mm.

Trinidad and Tobago:

During the 15-days, there is a high (80%) chance for partly to mostly cloudy skies with showers. Periods of light to moderate rain are expected with a moderate (60%) chance of heavy showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds favoring farmlands along hillsides of eastern Tobago, western coastal areas of Trinidad and eastern Trinidad.

Near to below normal rainfall is expected 1^st- 7^th then near normal rainfall forecasted towards mid-August. The 15-day period forecast rainfall totals in Trinidad are expected to range between 97 mm and 189 mm favoring northwestern, northeastern and southeastern areas of Trinidad, see figure 3. 

In Tobago, 15-day forecast rainfall is expected to range between 78 mm and 121 mm favouring farmlands over eastern areas and northern hillsides, see figure 4. There will be a moderate to high (70%) chance of moderately wet to severely wet conditions across most farmlands during the period. 

For the first week, a tranquil weather pattern is expected despite visits of tropical waves and the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. Near-average mean sea level pressure and no significant regions of instability are forecasted across northern South America. However, the atmospheric pattern becomes more favourable to rainfall through mid- to late- August. 

Temperatures & Winds:

There will be a higher potential of heat stress during the 15-days: a high (70%) chance of warmer than average nighttime temperatures and a moderate (60%) chance of near normal daytime temperatures. There is a moderate (65%) chance of two hot days in a row. Temperatures are expected to feel as hot as 35°C to 45°C when factoring humidity on the warmest days when daily maximum temperatures of 32-33 °C are forecast. Warm nights with minimum temperatures of 23-27°C are expected (especially southwestern Tobago and eastern Trinidad).

Near average wind speeds are expected (1^st - 6^th ) with a moderate (55%) chance of fresh to strong winds and occasional gusts of 50 km/h or higher expected near heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms. For week 2 (7^th - 15^th), generally east to southeasterly winds are expected to be slower than average. Evapotranspiration rates in crops of 2.0 mm to 5.0 mm per day on average are expected mainly due to near-normal daytime temperatures forecast during the period. 

Moisture levels:

Moderate to high moisture levels are expected across Trinidad and Tobago over the fifteen-day period, with average daytime relative humidity values expected from the high-60s to high-80s, in terms of percentage.

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

During the 15-days, moderately wet to severely wet conditions should continue nationwide. Moderate to heavy rainfall occurring on saturated soils will bring a moderate to high risk of flash flooding, overfilling ponds, land slippage on fields and access roads. 

Heat hazards are expected to increase for farm workers, young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is a moderate (60%) chance that strong gusts will damage young plants and flowering mature plants in exposed hilly areas. There is a moderate (60%) chance for fungal spread, insect pests and warm/moist weather diseases to develop in crop beds.

Continue to monitor streams and nearby watercourse levels. Implement pest and disease control measures as recommended. Monitor crops and animals for signs of heat stress and irrigate crops as needed especially in the flowering stage.

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky August (1^st to 15^th) 2025.

The sun is presently at latitude 17.8 degrees North of the Equator. The day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago on August 1^st will be 12 hours, 35 minutes decreasing to 12 hours, 28 minutes on August 15^th.

Moon Phases: First Quarter, 1^st; Full Moon, 9^th. According to the tradition of moon phases: August 1^st – 2^nd and 5^th – 6^th are good days for planting above-ground crops; 10^th – 11^th and 14^th – 15^th are good days for planting below-ground crops; the remaining days are poor planting days and useful for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.