Summary of Expected conditions:

A wetter than usual start of the 2026 Dry Season continues to maintain moist soils across various farmlands. Mainly near above normal rainfall amounts February 1^st  to 15^th are expected to lessen concerns for dryness. No heat-related hazards are expected early-to-mid February 2026. 

Weather Assessment for the period 16^th to 31^st  January 2026.

In Trinidad, concerns of dryness eased across the Caroni Plains and eastern areas despite below normal rainfall observed at Piarco, Trinidad. From the 16^th to 31^st  January, Piarco observed below normal rainfall with a 15-day rainfall total of 12.9 mm due to three relatively wet days. Across Tobago, dry spell concerns have eased for Tobago’s farmers due to much above normal rainfall through January. Crown Point observed a 15-day rainfall total of 87.6 mm with one extremely wet day (23^rd) and one wet day (29^th). The rainfall totals maps for the period 16^th to 31^st  of January for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 16^th to 31^st  of January 2026. 

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 16^th to 31^st  of January 2026.
 

Temperatures:

No heat hazards were observed overall during the second half of January. No hot days were observed at Piarco (maximum temperature at least 34.0 ⁰C) with a maximum daytime temperature 31.8 ⁰C (20^th). Nighttime temperatures have been near- to above average as minimum temperatures have ranged from 22.0 ⁰C to a warm 24.8 ⁰C at Piarco. 

Crown Point, Tobago observed no hot days (maximum temperatures at least 33.0 ⁰C)  with near normal temperatures both day and night. At Crown Point from 16^th to 31^st  of January the maximum daytime temperature was 30.5 ⁰C (16^th) and the minimum temperatures ranged from 23.1 ⁰C to a warm 25.7 ⁰C.

Factoring the relative humidity however these temperatures had a ‘real feel’ that was higher than the observed maximum temperature.

Agro-meteorological Forecast:

Date	Weather			Temperature	Heat Index ‘Feels Like’	Day Moisture (Relative Humidity)	Wind
1	40% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Hazy, breezy/windy, brisk isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 33°C-36°C	55-75%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
2	40% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Hazy, breezy/windy, brisk isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/22°C	Feels like 33°C-36°C	55-80%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
3	20% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Hazy, breezy/windy, brisk isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/22°C	Feels like 34°C-36°C	55-75%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
4	20% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 33°C-34°C	50-75%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
5	20% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 33°C-34°C	50-75%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
6	40% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 34°C-36°C	55-80%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
7	40% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 35°C-36°C	55-80%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
8	40% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated showers	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/22°C	Feels like 33°C-36°C	50-75%	East-southeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
9	60% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, hazy, breezy, isolated showers	Very Warm Max/Min Temperatures 33°C/22°C	Feels like 33°C-36°C	50-75%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
10	60% chance of rainfall	1-5 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 33°C-36°C	55-75%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
11	60% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 34°C-36°C	55-75%	East 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
12	60% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 34°C-36°C	55-75%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
13	60% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 32°C-34°C	50-70%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
14	60% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 32°C-34°C	50-70%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h
15	60% chance of rainfall	1-3 mm of rainfall is possible	Partly cloudy, breezy, isolated showers	Warm Max/Min Temperatures 32°C/23°C	Feels like 33°C-34°C	50-75%	East-northeast 20-30 km/h Gust 50 km/h

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of February (1^st to 15^th) 2026.

 Figure 3.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (1^st to 15^th February 2026) and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern and North-Eastern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.6 mm.

South-Eastern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.9 mm.

Southern areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.9 mm.

South-Western areas: High chance (75%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.9 mm.

Central, West-Central, and inland areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.8 mm.

Northern, North-Western areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.6 mm. 

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of  February (1^st to 15^th)  2026.

Figure 4.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period  (1^st to 15^th February 2026) and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas: Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 2.1 mm.

South-Western areas: Moderate chance (55%) of mean daily rainfall up to 1.6 mm.

Trinidad and Tobago:

From the 1^st to 15^th February, mainly sunny to partly cloudy, hazy and breezy to windy conditions with brisk showers are expected across farmlands. During the 15 days there is a moderate (70%) chance for near normal rainfall amounts across farmlands despite very stable, dry atmospheric conditions during significant bouts of Saharan dust/air. Forecast rainfall during relatively wet days however should maintain soil moisture and greenness especially across eastern, central Tobago and eastern Trinidad. During the 15-day period, 1^st to 15^th, forecast rainfall totals in Trinidad are expected to range between 17 mm and 54 mm favoring eastern Trinidad and the Northern Range, see figure 3. In Tobago, the 15-day forecast rainfall is expected to range between 21 mm and 34 mm favouring farmlands near hillside areas from Goodwood to Speyside, see figure 4. 

Temperatures & Winds:

No heat hazard is expected over Trinidad and Tobago through 15^th February 2026. There is a moderate (35%) chance of above normal daytime temperatures and a moderate (60%) chance of above normal nighttime temperatures. Generally daily maximum temperatures of 30 °C to 32 °C are forecast, however a couple of days of 33 °C are possible western Trinidad. On the hottest days, temperatures are expected to feel as hot as 32 °C to 36 °C when factoring humidity. Generally nighttime minimum temperatures will range from 22 °C to 23 °C, though cooler nights of 21°C or lower are possible in sheltered valleys.

Generally easterly winds, moderate to fresh, of near normal wind speeds are expected with a moderate (70%) chance of occasional gusts of 50 km/h or higher on hilltops and exposed coastal areas. Evaporation rates up to 4.0 mm per day are expected but faster water loss is expected on breezy/windy days forecast during the period. 

Moisture levels:

Low to moderate moisture levels are expected across Trinidad and Tobago over the fifteen-day period, with average daytime relative humidity values expected from the low-50s to mid-70s, in terms of percentage.

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

From the 1^st to 15^th, no heat-related hazards are expected for farm workers, young livestock, newly germinated/ transplanted seedlings onto fields. Dry but warm conditions will provide a moderate (60%) chance for fungal spread, insect pests and diseases to develop in crop beds. Dense plumes of Saharan dust/air may affect small ruminants and poultry.

There is a low risk of street/flash flooding, overfilling ponds, land slippage on fields and access roads. 

Strong gusts will likely damage young plants and flowering mature plants in exposed hilly areas. 

Continue to monitor streams and nearby watercourse levels. Maintain adequate drainage on fields. Ensure regular weeding to reduce competition and water stress on crops. Implement pest and disease control measures as recommended. Monitor crops and irrigate crops as needed especially in the flowering stage.

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky February (1^st to 15^th) 2026.

The sun is presently at latitude 17° degrees South of the Equator. The day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from February 1^st will be 11 hours, 41 minutes increasing to 11 hours, 48 minutes on February 15^th.

Moon Phases: Full Moon, 1^st and Third Quarter, 9^th. According to the tradition of moon phases: February 1^st – 3^rd,13^th – 15^th are good days for planting above-ground crops; February 7^th – 9^th are good days for planting below-ground crops. Remaining days are poor planting days and useful for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.