Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Third Dekad (21st - 30th) of June, 2022



ISSUED AT: 09:23 AM

Date: Wednesday 22nd of June 2022

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Summary:

Summary of Expected Weather:

Moderate to high rainfall amounts are expected on six of the fifteen days.

Six wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 10.0 mm and 40.0 mm are expected on the 21st, 24th- 28th of June while, nine relatively wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 1.0 mm and 8.0 mm are expected on the 22nd-23rd of June and the 29th-5th June/July 2022.

Trinidad:

Six wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 10.0 mm and 40.0 mm are expected on the 21st, 24th- 28th of June while, nine relatively wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 1.0 mm and 8.0 mm are expected on the 22nd-23rd of June and the 29th-5th June/July 2022. The daily rainfall totals are forecast to range between 1.0 mm to 40.0 mm across different farmlands, with fifteen-day rainfall totals ranging between 70.0 mm and 150.0 mm. The impactful rainfall events will mostly occur across the northeastern, eastern, southeastern, southwestern and northwestern parts of Trinidad. There is a high (90%) probability that flash and riverine flooding will occur during/after heavy rainfall events.

Tobago:

Similar to Trinidad, Tobago will experience six wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 10.0 mm and 40.0 mm are expected on the 21st, 24th- 28th of June while, nine relatively wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 1.0 mm and 8.0 mm are expected on the 22nd-23rd of June and the 29th-5th June/July 2022. The daily rainfall totals are forecast to range between 1.0 mm to 40.0 mm across different farmlands particularly southwestern areas, with fifteen-day rainfall totals ranging between 50.0 mm and 70.0 mm.

Temperatures & Winds:

The maximum temperatures are expected to remain warm, with temperatures ranging between 29.0oC to 31.5oC throughout the period. However, temperatures are expected to have a real-feel or feels-like between 31.0oC to 40.0oC on most days. The minimum temperatures will range between 22.2oC to 23.5oC during most nights/early mornings, dropping lower in rural areas and valleys.

Mostly weak easterly to south-easterly winds of an average speed of 10-20 km/h are expected, with gusts of 25-30 km/h at times. Moderate to high rainfall totals, mostly low wind speeds, warm days and warm feels-like temperatures will sustain average evapotranspiration rates in crops ranging between 1.4 to 8.0 millimeters per day.

Moisture levels:

Over the fifteen-day period across Trinidad and Tobago, moisture levels are expected to be moderate to high, with average daytime relative humidity values in the lower-60s to lower-90s, in terms of percentage.


Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Third Dekad (21st - 30th) of June, 2022



ISSUED AT: 09:23 AM

Date: Wednesday 22nd of June 2022


Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:

Term Meaning
Dekad 10 day rainfall measuring period
Rain Day A day with 1.0 mm or more of rainfall amount
Wet Day A day with 10.0 mm or more rainfall amount
Extremely Wet Day A day with 25.0 mm or more of rainfall amount
Normal Rainfall Between 75% and 125% of the average
Below Normal Rainfall Rainfall below 75% of the average
Above Normal Rainfall Rainfall in excess of 125% of the average
Much Below Normal Rainfall Rainfall below 50% of the average
Much Above Normal Rainfall Rainfall above 150% of the average
Scanty Rainfall Less than 1 mm
Moderate Rainfall 1-10 mm
Heavy Rainfall 10-50 mm
Very Heavy Rainfall Greater than 50 mm
Probability of 1-30 % Low Chance
Probability of 30-70 % Moderate Chance
Probability greater than 70 % High Chance
Term Amount of Rain Type of day
Scanty Rainfall Less than 1 mm Relatively dry day
Moderate Rainfall 1-10 mm Relatively wet day
Heavy Rainfall 10-50 mm Wet day
Very Heavy Rainfall Greater than 50 mm Excessively wet day

Weather Bulletin for Farmers and Livestock Producers of Trinidad and Tobago for the 15-day period (21st– 5th) of June/July 2022.

Date

Weather

Temperature

Heat

Real

Feel

Day Moisture

(Relative) (Humidity)

Wind

21st              

70% chance of showers

 

10.0 to 15.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    30.0/22.2

 

 

Feels like

33-38oC

 

 

74-82%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 15 km/h

22nd   

60% chance of showers

 

1.0 to 5.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    30.0/22.5

 

 

Feels like

34-40oC

 

 

77-86%

Weak south-easterly

15 km/h

Gust

 25 km/h

23rd         

60% chance of showers

 

1.0 to 5.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    30.0/22.5

 

 

Feels like

34-40oC

 

 

77-86%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 15 km/h

24th

80% chance of showers

 

10.0 to 25.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Cloudy with light/mod occasional heavy showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC   30.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

31-36oC

 

 

71-78%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 15 km/h

25th

80% chance of showers

 

10.0 to 25.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Cloudy with light/mod occasional heavy showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC   30.5/23.0

 

 

Feels like

33-38oC

 

 

70-75%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 15 km/h

 

 

26th

80% chance of showers

 

10.0 to 35.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Cloudy with light/mod occasional heavy showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC   30.0/23.5

 

 

Feels like

30-36oC

 

 

76-89%

Weak south-easterly

15 km/h

Gust

 25 km/h

27th

80% chance of showers

 

10.0 to 40.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Cloudy with light/mod occasional heavy showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC   29.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

30-36oC

 

 

82-88%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 15 km/h

28th

70% chance of showers

 

10.0 to 15.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy/cloudy with showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    29.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

31-38oC

 

 

79-86%

Weak easterly

10 km/h

Gust

 15 km/h

29th

60% chance of showers

 

1.0 to 8.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with 

showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    30.0/23.5

 

 

Feels like

34-37oC

 

 

85-91%

Weak south-easterly

15 km/h

Gust

 25 km/h

30th

45% chance of showers

 

1.0 to 3.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    31.0/23.0

 

 

Feels like

33-40oC

 

 

64-68%

Moderate easterly

20 km/h

Gust

 30 km/h

1st       

45% chance of showers

 

1.0 to 3.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    31.5/23.0

 

 

Feels like

33-37oC

 

 

63-68%

Moderate easterly

20 km/h

Gust

 30 km/h

2nd

 

                

45% chance of showers

 

1.0 to 3.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    31.5/23.5

 

 

Feels like

33-40oC

 

 

65-78%

Weak south-easterly

15 km/h

Gust

 25 km/h

3rd

            

45% chance of showers

 

1.0 to 3.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    31.5/23.5

 

 

Feels like

33-40oC

 

 

60-67%

Moderate easterly

20 km/h

Gust

 30 km/h

4th   

35% chance of showers

 

1.0 to 2.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with one or two showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    31.5/23.5

 

 

Feels like

33-38oC

 

 

58-64%

Moderate easterly

20 km/h

Gust

 30 km/h

5th   

45% chance of showers

 

1.0 to 5.0 mm of   rainfall is possible

Partly cloudy with 

showers

Warm      Max/Min  Temperatures  oC    31.5/23.5

 

 

Feels like

33-38oC

 

 

66-71%

Weak south-easterly

15 km/h

Gust

 25 km/h

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of June/July (21st –5th) 2022.

Figure 1.  Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (21st-5th) June/July 2022 and percentage probability of occurrence.

Eastern, and North-Eastern areas 

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.1 mm.

South-Eastern areas

High chance (78%) of mean daily rainfall up to 15.0 mm.

Southern areas

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.8 mm.

South-Western areas 

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.1 mm.

Central, West-Central, and inland areas

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.0 mm.

Northern, North-Western areas     

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 9.7 mm.

Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of June/July (21st –5th) 2022

Figure 2.    Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (21st-5th) June/July 2022 and percentage probability of occurrence.

North-Eastern areas

Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.0 mm.

South-Western areas

Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 6.0 mm.

Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky June/July (21st-5th) 2022.

The sun is presently at 23.4 degrees North latitude and with this position, the day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from June 21st will be 12 hours and 45 minutes, decreasing slightly to 12 hours and 44 minutes by 5th July 2022. According to the moon’s phases, the 28th (New Moon Phase), 29th of June and 5th of July are good days for planting aboveground crops while the 23rd-24th of June are good days for planting belowground crops. However, the 21st-22nd, 25th-27th and 30th-4th of June/July 2022, are poor planting days. These days should be used for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.

Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:

During this third 15-day forecast period of (21st to 5th) June/July 2022, expect similarly wet conditions to occur as compared to the second 15-day (11th to 25th) June forecast period. There is a low probability (28%) chance for crop irrigation measures to take place owing to moist soils during the forecast period. However, livestock should be provided with fresh cool water during this forecast period to rehydrate particularly during warmer and drier periods. On drier days, there is a moderate probability (45%) chance of heat stress in young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is also a high probability (80%) chance for fungi spread, root and/or fruit rot, insect pests and warm weather diseases to develop in crop beds. River levels will remain at generally low/moderate levels during this forecast period but will become high at times during the 21st, 24th- 28th of June.

Weather Assessment for the period June (11th-20th) 2022

Wet days occurred on the 12th-14th and 16th of June over Trinidad and Tobago. The moderate to high rainfall amounts that occurred across the islands allowed for moderate to high moisture content in soils, while some places may have experienced water-logged soils at times which eventually dried out. Crop growth and development rates in general across agricultural lands and vegetation growth in pastures had significantly increased while river levels varied accordingly. The rainfall totals maps for the period, 11th to 20th of June for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.

Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 11th to 20th June 2022.

 

Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during period 11th to 20th June 2022.

Temperatures:

Temperatures were cool to warm during the period 11th to 20th June, as the minimum nighttime temperature fell to 22.4 ⁰C and the maximum daytime temperature rose to 31.7 ⁰C, in Trinidad.

Similarly, Tobago temperatures were cool to warm during the period 11th to 20th June, with the minimum nighttime temperature fell to 22.9 ⁰C and the maximum daytime temperature rose to 30.9 ⁰C.