Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Second 15-Day Period (16th - 30th) of November, 2023
ISSUED AT: 10:22 AM
Date: Thursday 16th of November 2023
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Summary:
Summary of Expected Weather:
Moderate rainfall amounts are expected during the fifteen days.
Wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 11.0-25.0 mm are expected on the 17th, 24th and 30th of November while days with 9.0 mm or less of rainfall are expected on all other days.
Trinidad and Tobago:
Wet days with rainfall amounts ranging between 11.0-25.0 mm are expected on the 17th, 24th and 30th of November while days with 9.0 mm or less of rainfall are expected on all other days. The daily rainfall totals are forecast to range between 1.0 mm to 25.0 mm across different farmlands across the islands, especially along the eastern and western coastal areas of Trinidad, and Tobago. The fifteen-day rainfall totals range between 75.0 mm and 125.0 mm in Trinidad, and around 50.0 mm in Tobago.
Temperatures & Winds:
The maximum temperatures are expected to become warm, with daily temperatures ranging between 29.0oC to 33.0oC throughout the period. However, temperatures are expected to have a real-feel or feels-like between 29.0oC to 40.0oC on most days. The minimum temperatures will range between 22.5oC to 25.0oC during most nights/early mornings, dropping lower in rural areas and valleys.
In general, mostly weak easterly to southeasterly winds with an average speed of 10-20 km/h are expected. Moderate rainfall totals, mostly light speeds, warm days, and warm feels-like temperatures will sustain average evapotranspiration rates in crops ranging between 2.0 to 9.0 mm per day.
Moisture levels:
Over the fifteen-day period across Trinidad and Tobago, moisture levels are expected to be moderate, with average daytime relative humidity values in the high-50s to low-90s, in terms of percentage.
Agro-Meteorological Bulletin for the Second 15-Day Period (16th - 30th) of November, 2023
ISSUED AT: 10:22 AM
Date: Thursday 16th of November 2023
Definitions used in the forecast and bulletin:
| Term | Meaning | |
|---|---|---|
| Dekad | 10 day rainfall measuring period | |
| Rain Day | A day with 1.0 mm or more of rainfall amount | |
| Wet Day | A day with 10.0 mm or more rainfall amount | |
| Extremely Wet Day | A day with 25.0 mm or more of rainfall amount | |
| Normal Rainfall | Between 75% and 125% of the average | |
| Below Normal Rainfall | Rainfall below 75% of the average | |
| Above Normal Rainfall | Rainfall in excess of 125% of the average | |
| Much Below Normal Rainfall | Rainfall below 50% of the average | |
| Much Above Normal Rainfall | Rainfall above 150% of the average | |
| Scanty Rainfall | Less than 1 mm | |
| Moderate Rainfall | 1-10 mm | |
| Heavy Rainfall | 10-50 mm | |
| Very Heavy Rainfall | Greater than 50 mm | |
| Probability of 1-30 % | Low Chance | |
| Probability of 30-70 % | Moderate Chance | |
| Probability greater than 70 % | High Chance | |
| Term | Amount of Rain | Type of day |
| Scanty Rainfall | Less than 1 mm | Relatively dry day |
| Moderate Rainfall | 1-10 mm | Relatively wet day |
| Heavy Rainfall | 10-50 mm | Wet day |
| Very Heavy Rainfall | Greater than 50 mm | Excessively wet day |
Weather Bulletin for Farmers and Livestock Producers of Trinidad and Tobago for the 15-day period (16th-30th) of November 2023.
Date | Weather | Temperature | Heat Real Feel | Day Moisture (Relative) (Humidity) | Wind | ||
16th |
65% chance of showers
| Less than 6.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy with showers | Warm  Max/Min Temperatures oC 30.0/23.5 |
Feels like 30-33oC |
78-88% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
17th |
75% chance of showers
| 11.0- 25.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 29.0/24.0 |
Feels like 29-33oC |
75-91% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
18th |
45% chance of showers
| Less than 3.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 33.0/25.0 |
Feels like 32-38oC |
59-68% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
19th |
45% chance of showers
| Less than 3.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 33.0/23.0 |
Feels like 32-38oC |
59-67% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
20th |
45% chance of showers
| Less than 3.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 33.0/23.0 |
Feels like 32-38oC |
61-70% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
21st |
65% chance of showers
| Less than 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 32.0/23.0 |
Feels like 32-40oC |
68-74% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
22nd |
65% chance of showers
| Less than 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 32.0/23.0 |
Feels like 32-36oC |
67-73% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
23rd |
65% chance of showers
| Less than 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 32.0/23.0 |
Feels like 32-37oC |
64-73% |
Weak south-easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
24th |
75% chance of showers
| 11.0- 25.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 30.0/23.0 |
Feels like 30-33oC |
71-81% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
25th |
55% chance of showers
| Less than 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 31.0/23.0 |
Feels like 31-36oC |
67-73% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
26th |
45% chance of showers
| Less than 6.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 31.0/22.5 |
Feels like 31-36oC |
70-82% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
27th
|
45% chance of showers
| Less than 6.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 32.0/22.5 |
Feels like 32-37oC |
61-68% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
28th
|
45% chance of showers
| Less than 5.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 32.0/22.5 |
Feels like 32-37oC |
60-71% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
29th |
55% chance of showers
| Less than 9.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 32.5/22.5 |
Feels like 32-38oC |
54-77% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
30th |
75% chance of showers
| 11.0- 25.0 mm of rainfall is possible | Partly cloudy to cloudy with showers | Warm Max/Min Temperatures oC 31.0/22.5 |
Feels like 31-36oC |
66-74% |
Weak easterly 10 km/h Gust 20 km/h |
Trinidad Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of November (16th–30th) 2023.
Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Trinidad during the 15-day period (16th-30th) November 2023 and percentage probability of occurrence.
Eastern, and North-Eastern areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.5 mm.
South-Eastern areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.5 mm.
Southern areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.5 mm.
South-Western areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.5 mm.
Central, West-Central, and inland areas
Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 7.5 mm.
Northern, North-Western areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 12.5 mm.
Tobago Rainfall Forecast for the 15-Day period of November (16th–30th) 2023.
Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing expected mean rainfall totals for districts across Tobago during the 15-day period (16th-30th) November 2023 and percentage probability of occurrence.
North-Eastern areas
Moderate chance (68%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.0 mm.
South-Western areas
Moderate chance (65%) of mean daily rainfall up to 5.0 mm.
Sun and Moon Positions in the Sky November (16th–30th) 2023.
The sun is presently at 18.5 degrees South latitude and with this position, the day-length or number of sunlight hours in Trinidad and Tobago from November 1st will be 11 hours and 38 minutes, decreasing slightly to 11 hours and 33 minutes by 3the 0th of November 2023. According to the moon’s phases, the 16th-17th, 20th (First Quarter Phase)-21st, and 24th-25th of November are good days for planting aboveground crops, while 2the 9th-30th of November are good days for planting below-ground crops. However, 18th-19th, 22nd-23rd, 26th, 27th (Full Moon Phase), and 28th of November are poor planting days. These days should be used for removing weeds, clearing land and ploughing fields.
Highlighted Possible Impacts on Agriculture:
During this second 15-day (16th-30th) forecast period of November 2023, expect similarly partly cloudy to cloudy periods with showery episodes as compared to the first 15-day forecast period of November. Mostly light to moderate/heavy showery events will produce some wet days during the forecast period. Therefore, rescheduling irrigation days on fields to maintain optimal soil moisture would be necessary on days that will have low rainfall. There is a low (30%) chance of heat stress in young livestock, newly germinated and transplanted seedlings onto fields. There is a moderate (65%) probability for flash and riverine flooding episodes. River levels will be low to moderate at times during the forecast period. There is also a moderate probability (68%) chance for fungi spread, insect pests and warm/moist weather diseases to develop in crop beds.
Weather Assessment for the period November (1st-14th) 2023.
Moderate to high amounts of rainfall occurred during the 4th, 7th, 8th, 11th and 14th of November across Trinidad and Tobago. The rainfall total maps for the period, 1st to 14th of November for Trinidad and Tobago are located below as figure 1 and figure 2.
Figure 1. Rainfall map of Trinidad showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 1st to 14th of November 2023.
Figure 2. Rainfall map of Tobago showing measured rainfall totals for varying districts during the period 1st to 14th of November 2023.
Temperatures:
Temperatures were cool to warm during the period 1st to 14th of November, with the minimum nighttime temperature falling to 23.3 ⁰C and the maximum daytime temperature rising to 33.0 ⁰C, in Trinidad.
Similarly, Tobago temperatures were cool to warm during the period 1st to 14th of November, with the minimum nighttime temperature falling to 23.8 ⁰C and the maximum daytime temperature rising to 33.4 ⁰C.