ISSUED AT: 03:49 PM

Date: Tuesday 10th of February 2026

Key Message: 

A wetter than usual start of the 2026 Dry Season has lessened concerns for drought nationwide. Near-to and above normal rainfall amounts December through January have brought relief over southwestern Tobago. By the end of January 2026, the level of severity had decreased across Tobago, from moderately dry spell (Drought Watch) to no concern; and in Trinidad, from dry to no concern. 

In the outlook for the next 3-month period February-March-April 2026, there is no indication of abnormal dryness/drought. Therefore, there is little to no concern of dryness/drought expected in the mid to long-term. 

Recent Rainfall and Wet Days.

In January, rainfall amounts had improved to near normal at Piarco, above normal across eastern Trinidad; and above normal at Crown Point and central Tobago. The rainfall totals at Piarco for November, December 2025 and January 2026 are 208.4 mm (94% of average), 144.4 mm (96.9% of average) and 48.2 mm (61% of average) respectively. The rainfall totals in Crown Point for November, December 2025 and January 2026 are 142.4 mm (65% of average), 165.9 mm (122% of average) and 146.3 mm (179% of average) respectively. 

In November, Piarco observed four extremely wet days (greater than 25 mm), one wet day (greater than 10 mm) and four relatively wet days (greater than 1 mm) while Crown Point observed one extremely wet day, four wet days and ten relatively wet days. In December, Piarco observed two extremely wet days, two wet days and ten relatively wet days while Crown Point observed three extremely wet days, one wet day and ten relatively wet days. In January: Piarco observed two wet days and seven relatively wet days (greater than 1 mm) while Crown Point observed four wet days and six relatively wet days.

Dryness Indicator Level of Severity.

At the end of January 2026, the severity level was No Concern. Based on the 3-month period December 2025 to January 2026,  the dryness indicator ( 3-month SPI) ranged from -0.36 to +0.93 in Trinidad (see Figure 1).  In Tobago, the severity level was also No Concern with 3-month SPI values from -0.19 to +0.4, (see Figure 2).  The colour-coded dryness indicator maps showing observed level of dryness is based solely on rainfall and can be used for decision-making or for heightening awareness on dryness.  

Figure 1. The colours on this map show observed dryness levels based on the rainfall differences from average, which have been standardized and expressed as the number of standard deviations less than average.  The 3-month period used to compute the dryness is December 2025 to January 2026 compared to the historical average for the same 3-month period. The yellow to red colours on the map indicate areas with borderline-dry to extremely dry levels of dryness. The grey colour indicates areas where there are no significant dryness concerns.

Figure 2. The colours on this map show observed dryness levels based on the rainfall differences from average, which have been standardized and expressed as the number of standard deviations less than average.  The 3-month period used to compute the dryness is December 2025 to January 2026  compared to the historical average for the same 3-month period. The yellow to red colours on the map indicate areas with borderline-dry to extremely dry levels of dryness. The grey colour indicates areas where there are no significant dryness concerns.

Dryness Outlook at the end of April 2026:

There is little to no indication of agricultural drought at the end of February 2026. Based on the 3-month period (December 2025 to February 2026) the Dryness Indicator (SPI) is expected to range from +0.67 to +0.90 across Trinidad, and +0.8 across Tobago for the 3-month period (December 2025 to February 2026).

No drought concerns are expected by the end of April. There are enhanced chances for near- or above- normal rainfall to continue February-March-April 2026. The Dryness Indicator (SPI) is expected to range from +0.15 to +0.37 across Trinidad, and +0.13 to +0.24 across Tobago for the three-month period February-March-April 2026 (see Figures 3 and 4).

Figure 3. The colours on this map show the predicted levels of dryness for the period February to April 2026.  It is based on the difference between standardized accumulated rainfall (observed and predicted) from February to April 2026 and the historical average rainfall for the same period. The yellow to red colours indicate borderline dry to extremely dry levels. The grey colour indicates areas where there are no significant dryness concerns.

Figure 4. The colours on this map show the predicted levels of dryness for the period February to April 2026.  It is based on the difference between standardized accumulated rainfall (observed and predicted) from February to April 2026 and the historical average rainfall for the same period. The yellow to red colours indicate borderline dry to extremely dry levels. The grey colour indicates areas where there are no significant dryness concerns.

The first half of the 2026 Dry Season should continue wetter-than-usual into March. Although climatologically March is the driest month of the year, the chances of extremely dry conditions is low to moderate (3% – 15%) for Tobago and the majority of Trinidad. This should maintain soil moisture, streams and river levels within catchment areas and replenish reservoirs. The ongoing La Niña is expected to positively influence rainfall with at least near-normal rainfall totals to the end of March 2026. This weak La Niña is likely to become neutral (neither La Niña nor El Niño) with a 75% chance through March 2026. Near-normal levels of dryness are expected by the end of April 2026. Therefore, no short-term drought concern is expected for the middle of the Dry season. 

Likely Impacts and Suggested Actions:  

No concerns of drought by the end of April 2026 could bring the following impacts: 

• maintain or boost soil moisture, streams and river levels within catchment areas and replenish reservoirs; 
• a brief decrease in bush, forest and landfill fire potential February to March, before increasing during April; 
• positively affect surface and groundwater recharge rates and stream flow rates. 
• lead to an increase in breeding areas for insect vectors such as mosquitoes during wetter and warmer than usual conditions.

Persons involved in agriculture are advised to: 

• maintain adequate drainage on fields during February; 
• ensure regular weeding to reduce competition and water stress on crops; 
• During March-April, meet any added demand for irrigation by exploring alternative water sources such as recycled water, brackish water for on farm activities.