ISSUED AT: 11:06 AM

Date: Wednesday 17th of June 2026

Drought possible over southern Tobago by the end of June. 

Implications  

• Continuing vegetation browning 
• Decreasing soil moisture 
• Potential for bush, forest and wild fires through June-July 
• Reduced water recharge rates and stream flows, negatively impacting surface water availability.

Suggested Actions

Water and Energy sector:

• Implement water harvesting, conservation, storage and proper usage

Agriculture & Food Security: 

• Compost unwanted dry vegetation and restrict/avoid setting agricultural fires
• Ensure adequate irrigation
• Monitor water use and maintain adequate water storage on fields through July
• Ensure regular weeding to reduce competition and water stress on crops
• Monitor for pests that will favour the less-wet-than-usual conditions in June to August. 

Disaster Risk Management Sector:

• Sensitize communities on the forecast and its negative impacts.
• Revisit early warning information dissemination channels.

Health Sector:

• Clear bushes, open drainage systems, and fumigate in and around residences.
• Revisit contingency plans to manage spike in vector borne incidences and rainfall-related infections.

Recent Rainfall and Wet Days.

In May 2026, rainfall in Tobago was well below normal at Crown Point and much below normal at Piarco. The frequency of rain days (1 mm or more) from April to May was unchanged at Piarco but decreased at Crown Point, while dry days increased at both Crown Point (10 to 14) and Piarco (14 to 17), see table below: 

Table 1. Recent monthly rainfall for Trinidad and Tobago.  
 

Dryness Indicator Level of Severity.

For the 3-month period from March to May 2026, conditions were very dry at Crown Point and across southwestern Tobago, slightly dry in pockets of northeastern Trinidad and borderline dry across the remainder of north Trinidad.

For the 3-month period from March to May 2026, the dryness indicator ( Standardized Precipitation Index ,SPI) ranged from -0.87 around Valencia to -0.06 around Tabaquite in Trinidad (see Map 1).  In Tobago, 3-month SPI values ranged from -1.52 to -0.42, (see Map 2).   

Map 1 , Map 2 .  The colours on this map show observed dryness levels based on the rainfall differences from average, which have been standardized and expressed as the number of standard deviations less than average.  The 3-month period used to compute the dryness is  March 2026 to May 2026 compared to the historical average for the same 3-month period. The yellow to red colours on the map indicate areas with borderline-dry to extremely dry levels of dryness. The grey colour indicates areas where there are no significant dryness concerns.

The colour-coded dryness indicator maps showing observed levels of dryness are based solely on rainfall and can be used for decision-making or for heightening awareness on dryness.

Dryness Outlook by the end of July 2026:

The anticipated level of concern at the end of June 2026 is Drought Warning in southwestern Tobago; dry spell over central Tobago, dry spell over northeastern Trinidad and borderline dry across the remainder of Trinidad and Tobago (based on a 3-month SPI for April to June 2026),see Maps 3 and 4. 

The anticipated level of concern at the end of July 2026 is Severe Drought Watch in northeastern Trinidad, dry spell over southwestern and central Tobago and borderline dry across the remainder of Trinidad and Tobago (based on a 3-month SPI for May to July 2026),see Maps 5 and 6. 

For the short-term, there is concern of drought with lowest SPI value of -1.55 expected at Crown Point in June (based on 3-month SPI for April-May-June 2026) and an extremely dry -2.14 across northeast Trinidad in July 2026 (based on 3-month SPI for May-June-July 2026). 

Map 3  , Map 4 . The colours on this map show the predicted levels of dryness for the3-month period April to June  2026.  It is based on the difference between standardized accumulated rainfall (observed and predicted) from April to June  2026 and the historical average rainfall for the same period. The yellow to red colours indicate borderline dry to extremely dry levels. The grey colour indicates areas where there are no significant dryness concerns.

Map 5, Map 6 The colours on this map show the predicted levels of dryness for the 3-month period May to July  2026.  It is based on the difference between standardized accumulated rainfall (observed and predicted) from April to June  2026 and the historical average rainfall for the same period. The yellow to red colours indicate borderline dry to extremely dry levels. The grey colour indicates areas where there are no significant dryness concerns.

Dryness Outlook by the end of August 2026:

The anticipated level of concern, (based on a 6-month SPI for March to August 2026) at the end of August 2026 is Drought Warning in northeastern Trinidad, see Map 7.

The lowest 6-month SPI value expected is -1.25 at Crown Point and -1.77 across northeast Trinidad by the end of August (based on 6-month SPI for March to August 2026). 

Deficits in rainfall alongside above-normal temperatures and increased evaporation rates are expected mid-to-late 2026 wet season as the El Niño event is forecast to strengthen mid-to-late 2026, see ENSO Monitor Update | Trinidad & Tobago Meteorological Service .

Map 7. The colours on this map show the predicted levels of dryness for the 6-month period March to August  2026.  It is based on the difference between standardized accumulated rainfall (observed and predicted) from March to August  2026 and the historical average rainfall for the same period. The yellow to red colours indicate borderline dry to extremely dry levels. The grey colour indicates areas where there are no significant dryness concerns.