Date: Friday 23rd of February 2024

A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral conditions is likely by April with increasing odds for a La Niña developing in August 2024.

In January 2024, sea surface temperatures continued to be above average in the equatorial Pacific Ocean while positive anomalies slightly weakened in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The latest Niño indices show values that are more than positive 1.4 0C in all except for the NINO 1+2 region where its weakest index of +0.9 was observed. The area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies are consistent with elevated subsurface temperatures across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Climate models have indicated with a high probability (79%) that a change to ENSO-neutral conditions may occur in April and with increasing odds for La Niña conditions developing in August 2024.

What does this mean for Trinidad and Tobago?

The ENSO-neutral event increases the likelihood of near-normal climatic conditions to occur. Historically, during an ENSO-neutral event, near-normal rainfall amounts would occur within Trinidad and Tobago, but not always. ENSO-neutral conditions will likely have little influence on local rainfall, and therefore will allow local and regional rainfall climatic systems to influence rainfall amounts during the months of April to July 2024.