Date: Wednesday 19th of May 2021

La Niña has ended. ENSO-Neutral (no El Niño or La Niña) Currently Exists


La Niña has ended. ENSO-Neutral (no El Niño or La Niña) Currently Exists


El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions have returned across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, as La Niña has fully faded. All ENSO indicators suggest neutral levels exist with no sign of either El Niño or La Niña developing during the first half of the local wet season. The vast majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions for most of the local wet season.

What does this mean for Trinidad and Tobago?

Historically, ENSO-neutral conditions tend to have limited to no influence on the local or regional climate. As such, other climate influencers such as surrounding sea surface temperatures are likely to play the key role in influencing local rainfall patterns during the season.

Guide: A La Niña (El Niño) is declared when the average SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become at least -0.5oC cooler than average (0.5oC warmer than average) in the preceding month and the cooling (warming) is expected to persist for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. This must occur together with a corresponding change in the overlying atmospheric circulation. The TTMS’s La Niña/El Niño Watch is activated when the ENSO Outlook indicates a probability of approximately 50% chance or greater for development of La Niña or El Niño.