Date: Tuesday 20th of December 2022

La NiƱa condition remains for December but with equal (50%/50%) chances for La Nina/ENSO-Neutral conditions in January to February and a high (71%) chance for ENSO-Neutral conditions in March to April 2023.

During the end of November 2022, negative subsurface temperature anomalies weakened triggering an eastward expansion of the above-average subsurface temperatures in the western and central Pacific Ocean and a contraction of the below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean. The low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies were evident across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean throughout the month. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña condition. Most statistical models indicate that La Niña condition will persist into the northern hemisphere winter months of December 2022 to early February 2023 and have a high (71%) chance of transition to ENSO-neutral condition in late February-April 2023. On the other hand, dynamical models’ averages, favours ENSO-neutral conditions in January-March 2023.

What does this mean for Trinidad and Tobago?

Historically, La Niña tends to increase cloudiness within Trinidad and Tobago and the chance of above-average rainfall, but not always. The trend from La Niña to ENSO-neutral condition will likely positively influence local rainfall during the period December 2022 to April 2023 period with frequent partly cloudy to cloudy periods and rainfall events.