In March 2024, sea surface temperature anomalies continued to weaken in most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest Niño indices show values greater than positive 1.1 ⁰C exist in all areas except for the NINO 1+2 region where its weakest index of -0.1⁰C was observed. The upper ocean heat anomalies have decreased, and below-average subsurface temperatures developed reflecting the expansion of negative subsurface anomalies associated with an upwelling Kelvin wave across the area. Although, climate models have indicated with a high probability (85%) that ENSO-neutral conditions may develop in April to June and a moderate probability (60%) that La Niña condition may develop in June to August 2024, weakened El Niño conditions still exist.

What does this mean for Trinidad and Tobago?

The ENSO-neutral event increases the likelihood of near-normal climatic conditions to occur. Historically during a ENSO-neutral event, near-normal rainfall amounts would occur within Trinidad and Tobago, but not always. The ENSO-neutral condition will likely have little influence on local rainfall and therefore, will allow local and regional rainfall climatic systems to influence rainfall amounts during the months of April to June 2024.

Guide: A La Niña (El Niño) is declared when the average SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become at least -0.5^oC cooler than average (0.5^oC warmer than average) in the preceding month and the cooling (warming) is expected to persist for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. This must occur together with a corresponding change in the overlying atmospheric circulation. The TTMS La Niña/El Niño Watch is activated when the ENSO Outlook indicates a probability of approximately 50% chance or greater for the development of La Niña or El Niño.