Sea surface temperature anomalies continue to weaken across most areas of the central Pacific Ocean. The latest Niño indices show values less than positive 0.8 ⁰C exist in all areas, with the NINO 1+2 region having the weakest index value of -0.5⁰C. The upper ocean heat anomalies have continued to decrease as well as below-average subsurface temperatures continue to develop geographically reflecting an expansion of negative subsurface anomalies. The atmosphere has also reflected this change where low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the eastern-central equatorial Pacific Ocean and the upper-level winds are near average. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflects ENSO-neutral conditions. Climate models have indicated with a moderate probability (65%) that La Niña conditions may develop in July to September period and may continue throughout October to December.

What does this mean for Trinidad and Tobago?

The ENSO-neutral event increases the likelihood of near-normal climatic conditions to occur. Historically during an ENSO-neutral event, near-normal rainfall amounts would occur within Trinidad and Tobago, but not always. The ENSO-neutral condition will likely have little influence on local rainfall and therefore, will allow local and regional rainfall climatic systems to influence rainfall amounts during the months of June and July 2024.

Guide: A La Niña (El Niño) is declared when the average SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become at least -0.5^oC cooler than average (0.5^oC warmer than average) in the preceding month and the cooling (warming) is expected to persist for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. This must occur together with a corresponding change in the overlying atmospheric circulation. The TTMS La Niña/El Niño Watch is activated when the ENSO Outlook indicates a probability of approximately 50% chance or greater for the development of La Niña or El Niño.