ISSUED AT: 11:49 AM
Date: Tuesday 14th of October 2025
La Niña conditions are present and are favoured to persist until January 2026, followed by a low probability (55%) of a return to ENSO-neutral in January to March 2026.
Presently, La Niña conditions exist, with below-average sea surface temperatures across the central and east- central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly indices range between -0.5 oC and -0.1 oC. Mostly below average subsurface temperatures prevail from the surface to 200 metre depth in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The atmosphere continues to reflect low-level easterly wind anomalies over the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. The upper-level westerlies winds continue over the western-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Convective rainfall remains enhanced over Indonesia and suppressed near the international dateline. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflects weak La Niña conditions.
What does this mean for Trinidad and Tobago?
Historically, during La Niña conditions, Trinidad and Tobago typically experiences normal to above normal rainfall amounts. La Niña positively influences rain-bearing climatological features to produce increased cloudiness and rainfall over Trinidad and Tobago.
Guide: A La Niña (El Niño) is declared when the average SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become at least -0.5oC cooler than average (0.5oC warmer than average) in the preceding month and the cooling (warming) is expected to persist for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. This must occur together with a corresponding change in the overlying atmospheric circulation. The TTMS La Niña/El Niño Watch is activated when the ENSO Outlook indicates a probability of approximately 50% chance or greater for the development of La Niña or El Niño.