ISSUED AT: 12:45 PM

Date: Wednesday 13th of July 2022

La Niña Weakens but Remains, Expected to Continue into the July-September Period.



Although there has been some slight warming in sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific ocean,  the main oceanic and atmospheric variables remain consistent with La Niña conditions. A large majority of the models forecast SSTs to remain below-normal at the level of a weak La Niña in the July-September period and with an increasing probability for La Niña conditions to continue till the end of the year. Consequently, the TTMS’s ENSO Outlook maintains Weak La Niña conditions.

What does this mean for Trinidad and Tobago?

Historically, La Niña tends to increase cloudiness within Trinidad and Tobago and the chance of above-average rainfall, but not always. La Niña will likely influence local rainfall during the period July-August-September 2022.

Guide: A La Niña (El Niño) is declared when the average SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean become at least -0.5oC cooler than average (0.5oC warmer than average) in the preceding month and the cooling (warming) is expected to persist for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. This must occur together with a corresponding change in the overlying atmospheric circulation. The TTMS’s La Niña/El Niño Watch is activated when the ENSO Outlook indicates a probability of approximately 50% chance or greater for the development of La Niña or El Niño.