Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for Trinidad and Tobago, January to March 2023



ISSUED AT: 08:59 AM

Date: Tuesday 17th of January 2023

 

  • December produced below normal rainfall amounts;
  • High chances exist for near normal rainfall totals during January to March (JFM) over Trinidad and Tobago;
  • Moderate chances for relatively wet days (less than 10.0 mm) during January and February;
  • January and February have moderate chances for rainfall above the climatological normal;
  • March has the highest chance for rainfall below the climatological normal;
  • JFM period rainfall totals with the highest chance of occurring range between 118.0 - 421.0 mm in Trinidad and between 165.0 - 233.0 mm in Tobago;
  • Both day and night temperatures are predicted to be mostly average for most of Trinidad and Tobago with moderate (40%) probabilities for very short-duration hot spells in March 2023;
  • The probability for JFM rainfall totals to be in the lowest 10% of all dry season rainfall is low (< 20%);
  • The JFM 2023 seasonal temperature outlook indicates normal seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures are likely. There is still a moderate probability that a few cool nights/early mornings can occur during January to March with temperatures falling below 20.0 oC

 

  • The dry season conditions usually result in reduced water recharge rates and stream flows. This can negatively impact surface water availability;
  • Dry season conditions usually lead to an increase in the need to collect and store water in tanks and containers. This can increase breeding areas for mosquitoes if not secured tightly.
  • Dry season conditions will increase the chances of bush, forest and landfill fires, especially in March. This will likely reduce air quality and negatively affect persons with existing respiratory and other ailments.

Early  Actions & Preparedness

  • Review household water plan.  Conserve, store and manage water safely and adequately.
  • Sensitize vulnerable communities on negative impacts of the forecast and actions to be taken.
  • Raise awareness on dry season agriculture pest and disease control measures and bushfires risk.
  • Ramp-up contingency plans to mitigate the possible occurrence of landfill fires.
  • Review contingency plans to manage dry season spikes in vector-borne diseases such as gastroenteritis and leptospirosis; and dust/smoke-related respiratory ailments. 


Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for Trinidad and Tobago, January to March 2023



ISSUED AT: 08:59 AM

Date: Tuesday 17th of January 2023

Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for Trinidad and Tobago, January to March 2023.

 

Near Normal to Above Normal Rainfall is Expected For January to March 2023.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 1: Category of rainfall likely for JFM (January to March) 2023 with the highest chance of occurrence expressed as probabilities represented on the map. Blue areas indicate places with an increased chance for above-normal rainfall, brown areas show an increased chance for below-normal rainfall, while green areas show an increased chance for near-normal rainfall. Normal is defined by the rainfall that was observed in middle one-third of the JFM period rainfall totals during the historical period used to produce the outlook.

 

 

  • High probability exist for near-normal rainfall totals over most parts of Trinidad during JFM;
  • Moderate probability exists for above normal rainfall totals over small parts of Trinidad during JFM;

 

  

Figure 2: Risk of the JFM 2023 being extremely drier than normal (within the lowest 10% on record).

  • The risk of extremely drier than normal conditions is low (< 20%) over both islands;
  • High chances (70%) of an increase in dryness during March 2023.

 

 

  

Figure 3: Outlook of possible rainfall accumulated totals for January to March 2023, with the highest chance of occurring.

  • The largest rainfall accumulated totals for JFM are likely to be between 118.0 and 421.0 mm in Trinidad and between 165.0 and 233.0 mm in Tobago.

 

Figure 4: Outlook of possible rainfall accumulated totals for January 2023, with the highest chance of occurring.

  • January rainfall with the highest chance of occurring ranges from 47.2-158.1 mm in Trinidad and 40.4-106.0 mm in Tobago.

 

Figure 5: Category of rainfall likely for AMJ (April to June) 2023 with the highest chance of occurrence expressed as probabilities represented on the map. Blue areas indicate places with an increased chance for above-normal rainfall, brown areas show an increased chance for below-normal rainfall, while green areas show an increased chance for near-normal rainfall. Normal is defined by the rainfall observed in middle one-third of the AMJ period rainfall totals during the historical period used to produce the outlook.

  • High chances for April to June (AMJ) rainfall totals are likely to be near normal to below normal over Trinidad and Tobago;
  • April and May are likely to be the driest months of the 2023 dry season.

 

 

Figure 6: The map shows the colour-coded category (below-normal, above-normal, and near-normal) of mean temperatures that is most likely to occur across Trinidad and Tobago for the January to March (JFM) period 2023.  The colour-coded bar-graph with the numbers to the right gives the likelihood for each forecast category to occur.

The Temperature Outlook Favours Normal Temperatures for January to March 2023

  • Both daytime and night temperatures are likely to be average over both islands;
  • A reasonably good chance (60%) exists for very short duration hot spells in March (maximum temperature greater than 34.0oC in Trinidad,  greater than 34.0oC  in Tobago);

 

Climatic Influencers and Context of the Outlook

  • Currently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in waters surrounding Trinidad and Tobago and further east of the islands are slightly warmer than average. Climate models surveyed shows that these conditions will become normal to below normal during latter half of February and onwards.

 

  • Presently, the La Niña is weakening and can transition to ENSO neutral state by February 2023. La Niña conditions generally have been associated with the enhancement of local rainfall, but not always.

 

  • During December, a negative index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was observed and is forecasted to slowly shift to weak positive index in January 2023. The overall influence should be a small positive impact on local rainfall.

 

  •  Models indicates that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal is in a  positive rain enhancing phase and is likely to continue for the rest of January 2023. This will have some influence on January’s rainfall.