ISSUED AT: 12:57 PM

Date: Friday 28th of February 2025

Near Normal to Below Normal Rainfall expected for March to May 2025: 

Key Messages

• March is likely produce near normal to below normal rainfall amounts;

• Moderate chances exist for near normal to below normal rainfall totals during March to May (MAM) over Trinidad and Tobago;

• Moderate chances exist for normal amount of  dry days (less than 1.0 mm rainfall) during March to May;

• MAM period rainfall totals with highest chance of occurring range between 50.0 mm to 319.0 mm in Trinidad and between 66.0 mm to 195.0 mm in Tobago;

• Both day and night temperatures are predicted to be above average for Trinidad and Tobago with moderate (55%) probabilities for short-duration hot spells from April to May 2025;

• The probability for MAM rainfall totals to be in the lowest 10% of all dry season rainfall is moderate (12%-22%);

Likely Impacts 

• The dry season conditions usually results in reduce water recharge rates and stream flows. This can negatively impact surface water availability;
• Dry season conditions usually lead to an increase in the need to collect and store water in tanks and containers. This can increase breeding areas for mosquitoes if not secured tightly.
• Dry season conditions will increase the chances of bush, forest and landfill fires, especially from March to May. This will likely reduce air quality and negatively affect persons with existing respiratory and other ailments.

Early  Actions & Preparedness

• Review household water plan.  Conserve, store and manage water safely and adequately. 
• Sensitize vulnerable communities on negative impacts of the forecast and actions to be take.
• Raise awareness on dry season agriculture pest and disease control measures and bushfires risk.
• Ramp-up contingency plans to mitigate the possible occurrence of landfill fires.
• Review contingency plans to manage dry season spikes in vector-borne diseases such as gastroenteritis and leptospirosis; and dust/smoke-related respiratory ailments. 

Figure 1: Category of rainfall likely for MAM (March to May) 2025 with the highest chance of occurrence expressed as probabilities represented on the map. Blue areas indicate places with an increased chance for above normal rainfall, brown areas show an increased chance for below normal rainfall, while green areas show an increased chance for near normal rainfall. Normal is defined by the rainfall that was observed in middle one-third of the MAM period rainfall totals during the historical period used to produce the outlook.

• Moderate probability exist for near normal to below normal rainfall totals across Trinidad and Tobago during MAM;

Figure 2: Risk of the March to May (MAM) 2025 being extremely drier than normal (within the lowest 10% on record).

• The risk of extremely drier than normal conditions is moderate (12%- 22%) over both islands;

Figure 3: Possible rainfall accumulated totals for March to May (MAM) 2025, with the highest chance of occurring. 

• Largest rainfall accumulated totals for MAM are likely to be as high as 319.0 mm in areas such as North Oropouche, Valencia, Sangre Grande and Plum Mitan in northeast and east Trinidad; and near 195.0 mm in Goodwood, Signal Hill, Orange Hill, Arnos Vale and environs in Tobago.

Figure 3: Percentage of the average rainfall totals for March to May (MAM), with the highest chance of occurring.

• The majority of Trinidad and Tobago have a high percentage of receiving near normal rainfall.

Figure 4: Possible rainfall accumulated totals for March 2025, with the highest chance of occurring. 

• March rainfall with the highest chance of occurring ranges from 20.6 to 107.8 mm in Trinidad and 18.5 to 79.0 mm in Tobago.

Figure 5: Category of rainfall likely for JJA (June to August) 2025 with the highest chance of occurrence expressed as probabilities represented on the map. Blue areas indicate places with an increased chance for above normal rainfall, brown areas show an increased chance for below normal rainfall, while green areas show an increased chance for near normal rainfall. Normal is defined by the rainfall that was observed in middle one-third of the JJA period rainfall totals during the historical period used to produce the outlook.

• A moderate probability exists for June to August (JJA) rainfall totals to be near normal to below normal over of Trinidad and Tobago;

The Temperature Outlook Favours Above Normal Temperatures for March to May 2025.

Figure 7: The map shows the colour-coded category (below-normal, above-normal, and near-normal) of mean temperatures that is most likely to occur across Trinidad and Tobago for the March to May (MAM) period 2025.  The colour-coded bar-graph with the numbers to the right gives the likelihood for each forecast category to occur.

• Both daytime and night temperatures are likely to be warmer than average over both islands;
• Chances of warmer than average days are highest in Trinidad where there is a 60% chance of warmer than average days in western areas, while there is a 55% chance for south western Tobago;
• There is a 52% chance of warmer than average nights in Trinidad, while Tobago has a 48% chance;
• A moderate chance (68%) exist for short duration hot spells in the latter part of April and May (maximum temperature greater than 34.0^oC in Trinidad, greater than 33.0^oC  in Tobago);
• Historically, the end of April is the start of the heat season where maximum temperatures can get as high as 35.0^oC in Trinidad and as high as 34.0 ^oC in Tobago.

How Should You Respond?                      Take Early Action!

Health Sector:

• Clear bushes, open drainage systems, fumigate in and around residences;
• Revisit contingency plans to manage spike in vector borne incidences and rainfall related infections.

Disaster Risk Management Sector:

• Sensitize communities on the forecast and its negative impacts;
• Revisit early warning information dissemination channels;

Agriculture & Food Security Sector

• Practice soil moisture conservation like mulching and trenches;
• Clear vegetation from crop beds and drains to ease waterlogged soils. 
• Put in place disease control measures.

Water, Drainage and Energy sector

• Implement water harvesting, storage and proper usage;
• Conduct routine de-silting of water channels, canals and reservoirs;
• Remove dry branches, trees and overhang on houses.

General Public

• Proper preparation especially for persons in at risk areas;
• Clean drains and surrounding areas of debris and dry vegetation;
• Conserve, store and manage water in a safe and adequate manner;
• Be vigilant of bush, forest and landfill fires; 

Be vigilant and visit the Met Service website regularly to keep up to date on local weather changes daily at www.metoffice.gov.tt or download our mobile app on Google Play Store or Apple iStore.

Climatic Influencers and Context of the Outlook:

• Currently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in waters surrounding Trinidad and Tobago and further east of the islands are above average. Climate models surveyed mostly favour above average conditions to persist during March to May;

• The neutral phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is favoured to develop from March to May 2025. ENSO neutral conditions generally have a varied influence on local rainfall.

• During the month of February, a moderately strong negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was observed and is forecast to slowly transition to a weak negative phase that will continue into May. The overall influence should be a small positive impact on local rainfall.

• Frequent episodes of moderately strong low-level winds accompanied at times with Saharan dust is expected to traverse over Trinidad and Tobago from March to May.

• Models indicate that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will not be in our area during March and will not influence rainfall totals.