ISSUED AT: 12:57 PM

Date: Friday 12th of December 2025

A Wet Start for the 2026 Dry Season
Near Normal to Above Normal Rainfall and Warm Temperatures are Expected For December 2025 and the 2026 Dry Season

Flood Potential Remains Moderate for December 2025.

Figure 1: Possible rainfall totals with the highest chances of occurrence during December 2025.

• Near normal rainfall totals are likely for December 2025;
• The areas that are likely to get the highest rainfall totals are within the north-eastern areas of Trinidad and central Tobago;
• Few areas in western Trinidad and north-eastern Tobago are likely to get rainfall totals below 66 mm;
• Most areas in Trinidad are favoured to observed rainfall totals above 206 mm with some areas in northern east Trinidad are likely to exceed 310 mm;
• Tobago is likely to get rainfall totals of more than 124 mm across most areas.
• Flash flooding, waterlogged soils and water ponding are likely in December 2025.

Green areas show an increased chance for near-normal rainfall. 

Figure 2: Category of rainfall likely for DJF (December to February) 2025/6 with the highest chance of occurrence expressed as probabilities represented on the map. 

• The December to February (DJF) 2025-2026 rainfall outlook indicates that there are enhanced chances for near-normal conditions to occur across Trinidad and Tobago;
• Most of the DJF seasonal rainfall will occur in December and January 2026;
• Near normal is defined as rainfall amounts within the range 75% to 125% of the Long Term Average (1991-2020).

Blue areas indicate places with an increased chance for above normal rainfall. 

Figure 3: Category of rainfall likely for January to March (JFM) with the highest chances of occurrence expressed as probabilities represented on the map. The 3-month period, January to March, is likely to be wetter than usual overall, with frequent rainfall events occurring over most areas;

• Most of the observable dryness will be seen in the latter half of March 2026.
• Above-normal is defined as rainfall amounts greater than or equal to 125% of the Long Term Average (1991-2020).

Green areas show an increased chance for near-normal rainfall. 

Figure 9: Category of rainfall likely for March to May (MAM) with the highest chances of occurrence expressed as probabilities represented on the map. 

• The March to May 2026, rainfall outlook indicates that near-normal rainfall amounts are likely across Trinidad and Tobago.
• Near normal is defined as rainfall amounts within the range 75% to 125% of the Long Term Average (1991-2020).

Green areas show an increased chance for near-normal rainfall. 

Figure 3: Category of rainfall likely for the 2026 Dry Season with the highest chances of occurrence expressed as probabilities represented on the map. 

• The 2026 Dry Season rainfall outlook indicates a strongly enhanced signal for near-normal rainfall amounts across  Trinidad and Tobago.
• Near normal is defined as rainfall amounts within the range 75% to 125% of the Long Term Average (1991-2020).

Figure 4: Percentage of average rainfall totals likely for the 2026 Dry Season.

• In general, the dry season is likely to get percentages of average seasonal rainfall that are mostly between 84% to 124% of the average;
• The country is likely to get about 97 dry-days during the season, which is below the average of 108 dry days (a dry day is defined as a day with less than 1.0 mm of rainfall);
• Trinidad and Tobago normally experiences 3 to 8, 7-day dry spells and 1 to 5, 10-day dry spells in the dry season. For 2026, there is a moderate (57%) probability for 5, 7-day dry spells and a moderate (53%) probability for 3, 10-day dry spells.

Figure 7: Possible accumulated rainfall totals with the highest chance of occurrence during the 2026 dry season.

• The 2026 dry season accumulated rainfall totals for Trinidad and Tobago are likely to be the highest in northern and eastern areas in the vicinity of Valencia, North Oropouche, Sangre Grande in Trinidad and Charlotteville, Speyside, Roxborough and Glamorgan in Tobago, where the totals could range between 540 mm and 769 mm.

• The lowest dry season totals are likely in northwestern parts of Trinidad, such as St. Joseph, San Juan, Port of Spain, Diego Martin and Claxton Bay and southwestern parts of Tobago, such as Scarborough, Mason Hall, Crown Point and Plymouth.

Extremely dry conditions refer to the lowest 10% of dry season total rainfall amounts in historical records.

Figure 5: The map shows the chances for extremely dry conditions over the 2026 dry season. 

• The probability for totals to be in the lowest 10% of all dry season rainfall totals is low to moderate (3%-15%).

Figure 6: The map shows the probability of the 2026 Dry Season rainfall totals exceeding the national average of 412 mm.

• The outlook indicates moderate to high probability (18%-89%) that the national average of 412 mm will be surpassed;
• Areas in eastern Trinidad and central Tobago have the highest probability of exceeding the national average, while small areas in northwest Trinidad and southwest Tobago have the lowest probability of surpassing the national average.

The Temperature Outlook Favours Above Normal Temperatures over Trinidad and Tobago for Dry Season 2026.

Figure 10: The map shows the colour-coded category (below-normal, above-normal, and near-normal) of maximum and minimum temperatures that is most likely to occur across Trinidad and Tobago for the 2026 dry season.  The colour-coded bar-graph with the numbers to the right gives the likelihood for each forecast category to occur.

• Both daytime and night temperatures are likely to be above normal over the majority of both islands;
• The greatest odds for warmer than average nights and days are over cities, urban and build up areas;
• Chances of cooler than average nights are higher in rural parts of Trinidad and Tobago;
• A moderate chance (40%) exists for short-duration warm spells during the month of May 2026 with maximum temperatures averaging around 33.5 ^oC in Trinidad and 32.5 ^oC Tobago;

Early  Actions & Preparedness

• Review household water plan.  Conserve, store and manage water safely and adequately. 
• Sensitize vulnerable communities on the negative impacts of the forecast and actions to be taken.
• Raise awareness on dry season agriculture pest and disease control measures and bushfire risk.
• Ramp up contingency plans to mitigate the possible occurrence of landfill fires.
• Review contingency plans to manage dry season spikes in vector-borne diseases such as gastroenteritis and leptospirosis, and dust/smoke-related respiratory ailments. 

Climatic Influencers and Context of the Outlook

• A shift from ENSO neutral to weak La Nina conditions occurred in October 2025.      The weak La Niña conditions will positively influence rainfall occurrences over Trinidad and Tobago during half of the Dry season.
• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in waters near Trinidad and Tobago, further east and southeast into the Atlantic Ocean, are above-average for this time of the year and are forecast to continue into the dry season of 2026;
• During the last quarter of 2025, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was generally in a negative phase and is forecast to have a similar pattern during December 2025. The NAO will assist in producing weak to average wind speeds across Trinidad and Tobago during December to January and March to April 2026. There is a moderate probability (60%) of February having higher wind speeds, which may reduce rainfall amounts.
• The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is weak and is presently over the south-eastern Pacific Ocean. It is not forecasted to migrate eastward into the Caribbean Sea during December 2025.